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Policy Contribution

Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

What did we learn from the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom? Zsolt Darvas consider the lessons and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the forecast errors.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 13, 2018
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Opinion

The great macro divergence

Global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, albeit at a slower pace. Forecasters are notoriously bad, however, at spotting macroeconomic turning points and the road ahead is hard to read. Potential obstacles abound.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 5, 2018
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Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: Options yet open for a Brexit deal

Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House institute, joins Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis for an assessment of what progress can be reasonably expected from the final months of the Brexit negotiations.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 7, 2018
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Blog Post

Post-Brexit transfers of personal data: The clock is ticking

The UK government would like to keep EU-UK data transfers largely the same following the country's separation from the EU. But talks have yet to even commence on a future data-sharing relationship, and a landmark European Court of Human Rights ruling in September bodes poorly for the UK's future status under the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation.

By: J. Scott Marcus Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 7, 2018
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Blog Post

Trading invisibles: Exposure of countries to GDPR

This blog post identifies provisions of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) that affect foreign companies, and discusses implications for trade in services with the EU. The authors provide a novel mapping of countries’ relative exposure to these regulations by a) measuring the digital maturity of their service exports to the EU; and b) the share of these exports in national GDP.

By: Sonali Chowdhry and Nicolas Moës Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: June 28, 2018
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Blog Post

Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit

UK business confidence indicators hardly fell after the Brexit vote in 2016 and have been increasing steadily since. The most likely reason is an expectation of smooth Brexit deal, especially for industry, while there is more uncertainty for services.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 19, 2017
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Blog Post

UK economic performance post-Brexit

What’s at stake: Almost a year after the UK voted to leave the European Union, its economic performance has showed mixed results. The risks of a Brexit-induced recession do not seem to be materialising. On the contrary, up until the end of 2016 the UK saw a continuation of strong consumer spending and strong output in consumer-focused activities. However, the UK economy is showing signs of slowing down in the first quarter of 2017, with weak growth in the services sector and business investments. In addition, strong consumption growth started to cool down as individuals’ purchasing power declines due to a weaker exchange rate. This leads to a question whether it is the beginning of the Brexit slowdown. We review the contributions made on this topic in the last year.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Justine Feliu Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 15, 2017
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Blog Post

Brexit and the UK creative industry

The creative sector is important for the UK in terms of employment and share of exports. However, it has mostly been overlooked in Brexit negotiation discussions, despite the fact that a hard Brexit could risk slowing down one of the UK's most consistently growing sectors over the last decades.

By: Maria Demertzis and Fabio Matera Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 18, 2017
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Blog Post

Is the UK’s role in the European supply chain at risk?

Will the UK’s engagement in European supply chains be at risk once the UK exits the EU?

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: December 20, 2016
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Blog Post

Tweeting Brexit: Narrative building and sentiment analysis

Public discourse on social media was already in favour of Brexit by early summer 2015, and stayed that way until the referendum. An analysis of more than 890 000 tweets posted since 2012 reveals clear trends in the mood of online discussion. Our new methodology captures something that betting odds and opinion polls were not able to reveal – but will it be useful in future elections?

By: Giuseppe Porcaro and Henrik Müller Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 16, 2016
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Blog Post

Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit

There is still a certain degree of fuzziness about what the different degrees of Brexit entail. We attempt to fill this gap by setting out the options for the future EU-UK relationship.

By: André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 21, 2016
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Blog Post

Brexit, the pound and the UK current account

What’s at stake: UK PM Theresa May announced the intention to trigger article 50 by March 2017, the Pound Sterling crashed, and a dispute among Tesco and Unilever has resulted in Marmite shortage. Brexit means Brexit, and it continues to be highly discussed. It would be impossible to summarise all the economic blogosphere on Brexit. Our aim is to periodically update our readers on selected important aspects of what promises to be a long-lived topic of discussion. This time we are looking at economists’ view on the Pound crash and the UK current account.

By: Silvia Merler Date: October 17, 2016
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