With growth gathering momentum in the eurozone, some have claimed this is the proof that structural reforms implemented during the crisis are working, re-opening the long-standing debate on the extent to which reforms contribute to fostering long-term growth. This column employs a novel empirical approach – a modified version of the Synthetic Control Method – to estimate the impact of large reform waves implemented in the past 40 years worldwide.
While the prospect of a gridlock reassured investors about the short-term risk of an anti-establishment government, Italy still needs a profound economic shake-up and is in no position to afford months or years of dormant governments.
What is the possible future relationship between the EU and the UK in light of Brexit? The report provides a critical assessment of the implications of existing models of cooperation between third countries and the European Union on energy, electronic communications, research policy and small business policy.
What’s at stake: Since Donald Trump’s election in November, the US stock market has been on an unabated rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered through the 20,000 mark for the first time in history. POTUS has been quick in using this financial bonanza as prima facie evidence of his early accomplishments. However, several commentators question the link between Trump’s unorthodox economic policy pledges, the stock market rally, and future growth prospects.
Italians are being called to the ballot boxes on 4 December to either confirm or reject Constitutional amendments put forward by the government. Alessio Terzi constructed a probabilistic model based on poll data to assess the likelihood of such an event.
As Britain enters a period of political and economic instability, following a referendum vote that many now interpret as anti-globalisation, it is worth reflecting on what the consequences of Brexit will be for the world’s ‘economic steering committee’: the G20.
The creation of the single market generated winners and losers. Yet redistribution remains first and foremost a competence of national governments. It is thus fair to state that a failure in national, more than European, policies and welfare systems can be partly blamed for current discontent with the EU and the single market.
Italy’s current system of centralised wage bargaining needs to be reformed. The system was designed without regard for the underlying industrial structure and geographical heterogeneity of the Italian economy. This has fostered perverse incentives and imbalances within Italy.
Following Germany this year and Japan in 2016, Italy will assume the rotating presidency of the G7 in 2017. However, even the global governance aficionados could wonder whether this matters at all.
This paper was produced for the Italian Parliament and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.