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The Trump market rally conundrum

What’s at stake: Since Donald Trump’s election in November, the US stock market has been on an unabated rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average powered through the 20,000 mark for the first time in history. POTUS has been quick in using this financial bonanza as prima facie evidence of his early accomplishments. However, several commentators question the link between Trump’s unorthodox economic policy pledges, the stock market rally, and future growth prospects.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: February 27, 2017
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Renzi is going all in on the Constitutional referendum: what are the (updated) odds?

Italians are being called to the ballot boxes on 4 December to either confirm or reject Constitutional amendments put forward by the government. Alessio Terzi constructed a probabilistic model based on poll data to assess the likelihood of such an event.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 17, 2016
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Opinion

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The G20 in a post-Brexit world

As Britain enters a period of political and economic instability, following a referendum vote that many now interpret as anti-globalisation, it is worth reflecting on what the consequences of Brexit will be for the world’s ‘economic steering committee’: the G20.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: August 18, 2016
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How to make the single market more inclusive after Brexit

The creation of the single market generated winners and losers. Yet redistribution remains first and foremost a competence of national governments. It is thus fair to state that a failure in national, more than European, policies and welfare systems can be partly blamed for current discontent with the EU and the single market.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 18, 2016
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Policy Contribution

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An Italian job: the need for collective wage bargaining reform

Italy’s current system of centralised wage bargaining needs to be reformed. The system was designed without regard for the underlying industrial structure and geographical heterogeneity of the Italian economy. This has fostered perverse incentives and imbalances within Italy.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 6, 2016
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A vade mecum for Italy’s G7 presidency

Following Germany this year and Japan in 2016, Italy will assume the rotating presidency of the G7 in 2017. However, even the global governance aficionados could wonder whether this matters at all.

By: Alessio Terzi and Matteo Villa Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 16, 2015
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Parliamentary Testimony

ScreenshotItalian Parliament

Global economic governance: Italy's role in the G7 and G20

This paper was produced for the Italian Parliament and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

By: Alessio Terzi and Matteo Villa Topic: Italian Parliament, Testimonies Date: December 16, 2015
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Opinion

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Could Europe’s next growth locomotive be Made in Italy?

Important reforms put in place over the past months, combined with a conjunction of particularly supportive external factors, mean that Italy could indeed become the fastest growing large economy in the euro area in a not-too-distant future.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 27, 2015
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No coordination without representation

Further democratic legitimacy is a pre-requisite to economic union. This article explores how economic policies in the euro area should be coordinated, but this cannot be done in a mechanical rules-based manner. Arguing the contrary suggests a cavalier understanding of the complexity of economic policymaking.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 8, 2015
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Policy Contribution

Reform momentum and its impact on Greek growth

Reform momentum and its impact on Greek growth

The time is ripe to analyse in fine detail the conditions attached to the Greek programmes and to look in particular at the degree of structural reform implementation under the first and second programmes, the speed at which implementation took place, and the headings under which reforms were enacted, especially compared to the other euro-area programme countries.

By: Alessio Terzi Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 29, 2015