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Mini-BOT in the government programme of the Five Star Movement and the League

The economic evaluation of mini-BOT very much depends on its specific characteristics. Overall it appears to be a blend of an inferior security and inferior money. More important than its specific characteristics is the message that the implementation of the mini-BOT would send about Ital-exit: inevitably, given what the League and its representatives have said and written, the mini-BOT would be seen as a first step in the exit of Italy from the euro, rekindling denomination risk attached to Italian securities.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: June 5, 2018
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The effects of Brexit on UK growth and inflation

The full consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union were never going to be immediately perceptible. As we approach the second anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum, we can compare the subsequent economic data for the UK and the euro area and see how it diverges from the trends established before the vote.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 23, 2018
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Central banking in turbulent times

Central banks came out of the Great Recession with increased power and responsibilities. Indeed, central banks are often now seen as 'the only game in town', and a place to put innumerable problems vastly exceeding their traditional remit. These new powers do not fit well, however, with the independence of central banks, remote from the democratic control of government.

By: Francesco Papadia and Tuomas Valimaki Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: May 22, 2018
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External Publication

European Parliament

Note on the interactions between payment systems and monetary policy

This paper analyses the interactions between, on one hand, monetary policy and financial stability responsibilities of the ECB and, on the other hand, Post-Trading-Financial Market Infrastructures. In the author's opinion, payment Systems are critical for monetary policy while Central Counter Parties (CCPs) are critical for financial stability. However, in stressed conditions CCPs can be the source of risks also for monetary policy.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: February 26, 2018
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The exchange rate and inflation in the euro-area: words following facts

The reduced references in the speeches of the President and Vice-president of the ECB to exchange rate changes in assessing inflation developments correspond to a decreased pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation. So, as it should be, words have followed facts

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 16, 2018
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Macroprudential policy: The Maginot line of financial stability

The ability of macroprudential policies to assure financial stability and thus leave central banks free to assign the interest rate tool exclusively to price stability is unproven. As the Maginot line did not protect France from a German invasion in WWII, so macroprudential policy may not be sufficient to counter financial instability. Central banks should prepare to deal with dilemmas in the use of the interest rate.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 17, 2018
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A slightly tighter ECB

The ECB’s recent decision on QE was somewhat on the dovish side. Francesco Papadia gives his view on why it is time to start a discussion about reducing the degree of ease of monetary policy.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 15, 2017
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The Eurosystem - Too opaque and costly?

The Eurosystem gets a lot of attention from academics and the media, but they largely focus on its statutory objective of maintaining price stability. There is much less interest in its transparency and operational efficiency. We analyse these issues, and find that the Eurosystem is less transparent and operates with significantly higher costs and headcount than the US Federal Reserve System.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 6, 2017
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Phillips vs. Pass-through, or the changing ECB understanding of inflation

This blog post looks at how the approach of the ECB to inflation has changed over the years. It shows the ECB has moved, over the years, from a small towards a large country approach, giving more weight to the improving employment conditions than to the appreciating exchange rate in deciding its monetary policy moves.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alessandra Marcelletti Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 25, 2017
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External Publication

European Parliament

The single monetary policy and its decentralised implementation: An assessment

This paper assesses the decentralised implementation of monetary policy by the Eurosystem in terms of its transparency, efficiency and simplicity. Compared to the Fed, the Eurosystem seems to have higher staff numbers and operational costs for similar tasks.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alexander Roth Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: October 4, 2017