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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

President Trump’s budget: the 3% growth quandary

What’s at stake: the Trump administration released its full budget proposal. Economists have been arguing about the feasibility of the underlying growth assumptions, and on whether there is a double-counting implied. We review the most recent contributions to this debate.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 29, 2017
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Blog Post

Pia Hüttl

Dial N for NAIRU, or not?

What’s at stake: The concept of the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) has recently divided the minds in the economic blogosphere. We review the most important contributions on its usefulness, its shortcomings, alternatives and we discuss why it is such a contested concept.

By: Pia Hüttl Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 22, 2017
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Upcoming Event

May
31
12:30

Inclusive growth: global and European lessons for Spain

Can manufacturing still be a driver for inclusive growth around the world? What European and national policies can foster inclusive growth in Europe? What is the situation in Spain and what can Spain learn from the global and European experiences?

Speakers: Cristina Cabrera, Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis, Alejandra Kindelán, Robert Lawrence and Federico Steinberg Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Location: Calle Los Madrazo 36-38 Madrid
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Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero

China cannot finance the Belt and Road alone

The One Belt One Road initiative holds great promise for the global economy, but will need a huge amount of finance. Initial presumptions that China would be able to provide all the finance are now unrealistic. Other partners should consider providing finance for some aspects, especially Europe - which has a lot to gain from the project.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 12, 2017
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Opinion

Alicia García-Herrero

China's rising leverage is a growing risk

Worries about the growth in China's leverage are on the rise. Is this growth in leverage sustainable? Alicia García-Herrero finds that the evidence is not so positive so far.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 12, 2017
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

The US and the productivity puzzle

What’s at stake: Productivity growth fell sharply following the global financial crisis and has remained sluggish since, inducing many to talk of a “productivity puzzle”. In the US, we may be seeing what look like early signs of a reversal. We review recent contributions on this theme.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 8, 2017
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Policy Contribution

PC 13 2017 cover

Central Asia at 25

After a decade of growth based on hydrocarbon booms, Central Asian countries are faced with increasing challenges to complete their transitions to a market economy and towards economic development and integration.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 5, 2017
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

The Trump tax cut

What’s at stake: on Wednesday, the Trump administration - now 100 days old - unveiled a draft tax plan including the intention to enact a radical cut to the corporate income tax, lowering it to 15 percent. While we are still missing details on how this and other measures would be implemented, we review some of the early reactions.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 2, 2017
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Opinion

Marek Dabrowski

What are China’s global economic intentions?

At this January's Davos meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to a surprised audience that China would be the world’s new champion of globalisation. Bruegel scholar Marek Dabrowski agrees that a functioning global trade system is in China's interest.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 25, 2017
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

The decline of the labour share of income

What’s at stake: at odds with the conventional wisdom of constant factor shares, the portion of national income accruing to labour has been trending downward in the last three decades. This phenomenon has been linked to globalisation as well as to the change in the technological landscape - particularly “robotisation”. We review the recent literature on this issue.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 24, 2017
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Working Paper

Cover WP 2017_06

Regional and global financial safety nets: the recent European experience and its implications for regional cooperation in Asia

Comparing and evaluating financial assistance programmes of four euro-area countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Cyprus) and three non-euro-area countries (Hungary, Latvia, and Romania) of the European Union in the aftermath of the 2007/08 global financial and economic crisis. Asian countries can draw several lessons from European experiences.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: April 20, 2017
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Blog Post

André Sapir

Trump’s U-turn on trade with China is good news, but the EU should not be complacent

President Trump has so far been softer on China than his campaign promises predicted. This is welcome. However, the EU has a lot at stake, and should be ready to steer a tactical course between its two main trade partners.

By: André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 19, 2017