Essay / Lecture
Quality statistics are essential to economic policy. In this essay, Andreas Georgiou demonstrates the existence of fundamental risks inherent in the European Statistical System. He argues that a paradigm shift is necessary and sets out a model that would deliver the quality statistics the European Union needs.
This event will feature a presentation of the EIB's 2018 Investment Report
For weeks, protesters wearing yellow motorist vests have taken to the streets of Paris to protest against the rising price of fuel. They have since taken on a wider role, and are seen as symbols of the growing popular discontent with President Macron. Silvia Merler reviews scholars’ opinions about this movement.
The recent Eurogroup agreement on euro-area reform foresees a greater role for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) as a backstop to the banking union. This is a welcome step forward but important issues remain. We assess the agreement on how to fund banks after resolution and the best way to organise the fiscal role in liquidity provisioning to banks. We argue that the bank resolution framework will remain incomplete and its gaps could result in important financial instabilities.
In the past five years ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted. Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.
What are the challenges for implementation of the new EIP?
Les analyses de la fronde des gilets jaunes ont surtout mis l’accent sur la répartition des revenus et des prélèvements entre catégories sociales et selon le lieu d’habitation. Lecture évidemment pertinente. Mais elle ne doit pas en occulter une autre, qui porte sur les évolutions d’ensemble des dix dernières années et sur ce qu’on peut anticiper pour les dix prochaines.
The authors assess whether the euro area should pursue a greater international role for the euro, as outlined by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, and how it might go about doing so.
The authors discuss Italy's potential recourse to disaster relief from the European Union Solidarity Fund in the wake of recent floods, focusing specifically on how much aid Italy might expect and under what terms.
Banks deemed to be failing or likely to fail in the banking union are either put into insolvency/liquidation or enter a resolution scheme to protect the public interest. After resolution but before full market confidence is restored, the liquidity needs of resolved banks might exceed what can be met through regular monetary policy operations or emergency liquidity assistance. All liquidity needs that emerge must be met for resolution to be a success. In the euro area, this can only be done credibly for systemically important banks by the central bank.
What are the positive and negative developments and is there scope for improvement?
In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialogue, the authors review the emerging challenges to central banks, and propose an updated definition of price stability and an adequately refined monetary policy framework.