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Opinion

The great macro divergence

Global growth is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, albeit at a slower pace. Forecasters are notoriously bad, however, at spotting macroeconomic turning points and the road ahead is hard to read. Potential obstacles abound.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 5, 2018
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Opinion

Italy’s floods: How the European Union Solidarity Fund can help

The authors discuss Italy's potential recourse to disaster relief from the European Union Solidarity Fund in the wake of recent floods, focusing specifically on how much aid Italy might expect and under what terms.

By: Antoine Mathieu Collin and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 23, 2018
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Blog Post

Could Italian private wealth compensate for flight of foreign bond-holders?

Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini is "convinced" that Italians can help out their government, in the face of a widening yield spread between German and Italian government bonds. The authors assess the feasibility of recourse to household wealth in Italy, and estimate the relative importance of foreign debt-holders in the upcoming bond redemptions.

By: Jan Mazza and Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 19, 2018
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Blog Post

What the 2018 EBA stress tests (don’t) tell you about Italy

The results of the latest European Banking Authority stress tests were eagerly awaited for their results on the four biggest Italian banks. At first sight, these banks seem well prepared to withstand an adverse macro-financial shock. But judging by the market reaction following their publication, the results have not appeased investors.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 15, 2018
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Blog Post

The consequences of Italy’s increasing dependence on domestic debt-holders

Bruegel’s updated data set of sovereign bond holdings illustrates how a rising share of Italian debt is held by domestic investors – a development with particularly significant implications, in the context of the Italian government’s disagreement with the European Commission over spending plans outlined in its draft budget.

By: Jan Mazza Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: November 6, 2018
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Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: How does Italy’s budget fit with EU fiscal rules?

In this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel research fellow Grégory Claeys to assess how the new Italian budget proposals measure up against the existing EU fiscal rules.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 9, 2018
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Blog Post

Italy’s new fiscal plans: the options of the European Commission

The Italian government has announced an increase of its deficit for 2019, breaking the commitment from the previous government to decrease it to 0.8% next year. This blog post explores the options for the European Commission and the procedures prescribed by the European fiscal framework in this case.

By: Grégory Claeys and Antoine Mathieu Collin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 8, 2018
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Podcast

Podcast

Director’s Cut: The Italian government budget proposal for 2019

Guntram Wolff welcomes Bruegel affiliate fellow Silvia Merler to evaluate the Italian government’s planned budget for 2019, in this Director’s Cut of ‘The Sound of Economics’

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 28, 2018
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Blog Post

The higher yield on Italian government securities could soon be a burden for the real economy

The increase in the spread between Italian (BTP) and German (Bund) government securities is directly an additional burden for Italy public finance, and thus for tax payers. But it could soon also become a burden for the real economy, as the increased yield on Italian government securities could pull up the cost of bank loans for Italian firms, thus imparting a deflationary impact onto the economy.

By: Francesco Papadia and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 10, 2018
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Policy Contribution

High public debt in euro-area countries: comparing Belgium and Italy

This Policy Contribution looks at the evolution of public debt in Belgium and Italy since 1990 and uses the debt dynamics equation to explain the contrasting evolution in the two countries in the run-up to the introduction of the euro, during the early years of the euro and since the beginning of the crisis, arguing that the euro could have been used also by Italy to undertake sufficiently large fiscal adjustment.

By: André Sapir Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 6, 2018
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Opinion

Overcoming the hurdles to Italian Growth

Is the time for refining recommendations and for a serious political debate on how best to overcome bottlenecks and improve the economic prospects of Italians.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: September 4, 2018
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Blog Post

Italy’s capital flight: 2011, 2016, and early 2018

International investors have been repositioning vis-à-vis Italy, after the new government took office in early May. We compare this summer turmoil to previous episodes of capital outflows. Outflows from Italian portfolio investments in May and June have exceeded the outflows recorded during the summer of 2011, and are already halfway to matching the cumulated total outflows recorded during the entire 2011-12 crisis.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: August 31, 2018