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China’s investment in Africa: consequences for Europe

How is Chinese investment impacting Africa, and what could be the consequences for Europe?

Speakers: Solange Chatelard, Maria Demertzis, Alicia García-Herrero, Abraham Liu and Estelle Youssouffa Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 24, 2019
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Blog Post

Uncertainty over output gap and structural-balance estimates remains elevated

The EU fiscal framework strongly relies on the structural budget balance indicator, which aims to measure the ‘underlying’ position of the budget. But this indicator is not observed, only estimations can be made. This post shows that estimates of the European Commission, the IMF, the OECD and national governments widely differ from each other and all estimates are subject to very large annual revisions. The EU should get rid of the fiscal rules that rely on structural balance estimates and use this opportunity to fundamentally reform its fiscal framework.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 17, 2019
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Blog Post

The campaign against ‘nonsense’ output gaps

A campaign against “nonsense” consensus output gaps has been launched on social media. It has triggered responses focusing on the implications of output gaps for fiscal policy under EU rules, especially for Italy. But the debate about the reliability of output-gap estimates is more wide-ranging.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 17, 2019
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Parliamentary Testimony

Promoting sustainable and inclusive growth and convergence in the European Union

This speech was delivered by Guntram Wolff at the Informal ECOFIN Meeting in Bucharest on 5 April 2019.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Testimonies Date: April 8, 2019
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Policy Contribution

Promoting sustainable and inclusive growth and convergence in the European Union

This Policy Contribution was written for the Informal ECOFIN Meeting, Bucharest, 5 April 2019. The authors look at the EU’s economic agenda, discussing the priorities for the next five years.

By: Maria Demertzis, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: April 4, 2019
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Blog Post

How visible are independent fiscal institutions in public debate?

Independent fiscal institutions have no formal powers to act and have to rely on soft power to influence the budgetary process. This blog post investigates how they exercise this soft power by enhancing public scrutiny of fiscal policies.

By: Grégory Claeys Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 3, 2019
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Blog Post

Secular stagnation and the future of economic stabilisation

Larry Summers’ and Łukasz Rachel’s most recent study documents a secular fall in neutral real rates in advanced economies. According to the authors, this fall would be even more marked in the absence of offsetting fiscal policies. Policymaking in a world of permanently low interest rates may be hard to navigate, especially in troubled waters. We review economists’ views on the matter

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 1, 2019
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Blog Post

The shadow of Brexit: Guessing the economic damage to the UK

Under a set of assumptions, this post concludes that UK real income and investment would have been 4% and 6% larger respectively had it not been for the shock of the Brexit referendum result. With somewhat audacious assumptions, the damages already incurred can be scaled up to guess the negative macroeconomic consequence of each of the three possible Brexit outcomes: no-deal, deal or no Brexit.

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 21, 2019
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Blog Post

The higher yield on Italian government securities is becoming a burden for the real economy

Francesco Papadia and Inês Gonçalves Raposo have recently written on Italian fiscal policy and the increase in the spread between Italian (BTP) and German (Bund) government. Since then, two developments have taken place: one good, and one bad. This blog post reviews them.

By: Francesco Papadia and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 5, 2019
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Blog Post

Chinese growth: A balancing act

China’s GDP growth in 2018 was 6.6%, its lowest annual growth rate in more than two decades, and the rate is expected to slow further this year. What is driving the slow-down in Chinese growth and what are the implications for Chinese policymakers and the global economy? This post reviews the blogosphere’s take.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 28, 2019
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Blog Post

Is public debt a cheap lunch?

The fiscal and welfare costs of public debt, following Olivier Blanchard's presidential lecture at the American Economic Association, in which he suggested both might be lower than expected. We review his paper, along with several scholars' comments, and provide a quick comparison with the European context.

By: Jan Mazza Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 21, 2019
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Past Event

Past Event

EU-Turkey energy and climate dialogues 2019

What is the cost of capital for wind energy investments in Turkey?

Speakers: Massimo d`Eufemia, Gustav Fredriksson, Can Hakyemez, Pelin Oğuz, Canan Ozsoy, James Rizzo, Umit Sahin, Simone Tagliapietra and Mehmet Erdem Yasar Topic: Energy & Climate Location: Istanbul Policy Center, Bereketzade Mahallesi, Bankalar Cd. No:2, 34421 Beyoğlu/İstanbul, Turkey Date: January 17, 2019