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Upcoming Event

Jan
24
12:30

The future of EU trade policy

We are happy to welcome the European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström to Bruegel on 24 January to talk about the future of the EU's trade policy.

Speakers: Cecilia Malmström and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Blog Post

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The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland: a first look

Following the proposal from the Scottish Government that Scotland remain in the Single Market, the differing “Brexpectations” of the UK’s four constituent countries are once again back in the news. Scotland is getting a lot of attention in the Brexit debate, but Northern Ireland is an equally interesting case.

By: Filippo Biondi and Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 22, 2016
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Blog Post

Alicia García-Herrero
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UK-China agreement on trade in services is no substitute for a UK-EU deal

The UK government has high hopes that new trade deals with non-EU states will offer an economic boost after Brexit. But how likely is this to materialise? The authors show that a FTA with China is unlikely to offer much to the UK's prominent services sector. Strong links with the EU will remain vital.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 6, 2016
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

Trumpocalypse now: first reactions

What’s at stake: this question should probably be re-formulated as “what’s NOT at stake?” On Tuesday 8 November, the US elected Donald Trump as its next President. Several aspects of Trump’s political and economic agenda appear extreme (we have previously focused on his stance on trade). After the initial shock, we review economists’ opinions on what has happened and what may happen. We will be coming back to this topic regularly.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 21, 2016
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Alicia García-Herrero
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Trump could give new impetus to EU-China relations

It is too early to say what the Trump administration’s trade policy will look like – but a total cut-off from Asian partners is unlikely. It would harm the US economy, and offer China even more scope to cement its position in Asia. Nevertheless, with TPP and TTIP both looking unlikely, the EU should move fast to build relationships with China and ASEAN countries.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 15, 2016
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Trump, NATO and European defence spending

US President-Elect Donald Trump made critical statements about low European defence spending during the election campaign - signaling an expectation that Europe should contribute more to the cost of its security. Indeed, most European NATO members have spending well below the 2% target that NATO membership entails. Reaching this target could cost the EU27 NATO members 96 billion USD per year.

By: Justine Feliu Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 15, 2016
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Zsolt Darvas
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Income inequality boosted Trump vote

Our early econometric analysis shows that Donald Trump performed more strongly in states with higher income inequality. He also did better in states with a higher share of less-educated, older, US-born and non-Hispanic voters.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 9, 2016
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Blog Post

Simone Tagliapietra

President Trump: what next for global climate action?

The new Trump presidency might now signal a U-turn in the United States’ international climate policies.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: November 9, 2016
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Blog Post

Silvia Merler

Monetary policy at the time of elections

What’s at stake: At this week’s meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. While this was largely expected, the economic blogosphere has been discussing whether and to what extent this is linked to the election, and what can be expected for the future.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 7, 2016
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Silvia Merler

The Wallonian Resistance

What's at stake: this week has been filled with news that the he small Belgian region of Wallonia intended to veto CETA (the Canada-EU trade agreement). Eventually, Wallonia conceded defeat and agreed to let the agreement go on. But meanwhile, it spurred a debate on trade agreements and their sovereignty implications, which we summarise here.

By: Silvia Merler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: October 31, 2016
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Blog Post

Uuriintuya Batsaikhan

Maple syrup on Belgian waffles: EU-Canada trade

Wallonia recently voted against the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which aims to eliminate 98% of tariffs between Canada and EU. While the ratification is currently on hold, we take a look at the figures for EU-Canada trade.

By: Uuriintuya Batsaikhan Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 20, 2016
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Policy Contribution

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What consequences would a post-Brexit China-UK trade deal have for the EU?

A China-UK free trade agreement has been extensively discussed since the UK’s vote for Brexit. Many supporters of Brexit argue that the UK’s regained flexibility to strike trade deals with other partners, and in particular with China given its economic size, will be a key advantage. This analysis indicates that a China-UK FTA will be neither as easy nor as clearly advantageous as portrayed by Brexit supporters.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 7, 2016