On 4 June Bruegel, as in previous years, will host the presentation of the Euro Yearbook, a collection of experts’ insights on the construction of the European Monetary Union through 2017.
In March 1968, Milton Friedman’s “The Role of Monetary Policy” - after his famous presidential address to the American Economic Association - was published in the American Economic Review. 50 years later, economists reflect on this famous work.
Two years of elections have shown that we live in an age of increasing political and economic populism. What are the consequences of that for central banks? We explore opinions about it, from both 2017 and more recently.
The western Balkan economies are already closely integrated with the EU; the EU is their largest trade partner, their largest source of incoming foreign investment and other financial flows, and the main destination for outward migration. Monetary and financial systems in the region are strongly dependent on the euro. Progress in EU accession can further strengthen economic ties between six western Balkan countries and the EU, with benefits for both sides.
On February 23, EU members began negotiations on the bloc's multiannual financial framework for 2021-2027. But, with all countries focusing on net balances – how much they receive minus how much they pay – will the composition of spending bear any relation to the EU’s stated priorities?
This paper analyses the interactions between, on one hand, monetary policy and financial stability responsibilities of the ECB and, on the other hand, Post-Trading-Financial Market Infrastructures. In the author's opinion, payment Systems are critical for monetary policy while Central Counter Parties (CCPs) are critical for financial stability. However, in stressed conditions CCPs can be the source of risks also for monetary policy.
The reduced references in the speeches of the President and Vice-president of the ECB to exchange rate changes in assessing inflation developments correspond to a decreased pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation. So, as it should be, words have followed facts
The ‘Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project’ came to an end in the most recent volume of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy; how were the various papers’ conclusions received?
The resolution of non-performing loans (NPLs), a stock of roughly €870 billion in the EU banking industry, is central to the recovery of Europe’s banking sector and the restructuring of the excess debt owed by private sector borrowers. Could the development of distressed debt markets be a new element of capital market deepening in Europe?
The ability of macroprudential policies to assure financial stability and thus leave central banks free to assign the interest rate tool exclusively to price stability is unproven. As the Maginot line did not protect France from a German invasion in WWII, so macroprudential policy may not be sufficient to counter financial instability. Central banks should prepare to deal with dilemmas in the use of the interest rate.
The new year could very well see the positive story of 2017 continue in Europe – but a number of looming policy and political problems cannot be ignored.
The recent improvement in asset quality cannot mask other growing concerns in China’s banking sector. Beyond liquidity concerns, other structural issues such as low profitability and insufficient generation of organic capital, are emerging.