What did we learn from the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom? Zsolt Darvas consider the lessons and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the forecast errors.
Essay / Lecture
Quality statistics are essential to economic policy. In this essay, Andreas Georgiou demonstrates the existence of fundamental risks inherent in the European Statistical System. He argues that a paradigm shift is necessary and sets out a model that would deliver the quality statistics the European Union needs.
Surveys show that people systematically overestimate the share of foreign-born citizens among resident populations. Aligning people's perceptions with reality is vital to the betterment of public debate and proposed policies.
For a long time, southern and eastern Mediterranean countries struggled with serious socio-economic challenges and dysfunctional economic systems and policies. Marek Dabrowski reviews the challenges the region has to face to get out of a low growth trap.
Empirical trends in markups and market power: their implications for productivity and growth
Les analyses de la fronde des gilets jaunes ont surtout mis l’accent sur la répartition des revenus et des prélèvements entre catégories sociales et selon le lieu d’habitation. Lecture évidemment pertinente. Mais elle ne doit pas en occulter une autre, qui porte sur les évolutions d’ensemble des dix dernières années et sur ce qu’on peut anticiper pour les dix prochaines.
Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann write on the climate governance lesson European governments should learn from the "gilets jaunes" experience.
As the presidency shifts from Argentina to Japan at Buenos Aires (and then to Saudi Arabia) it is worth asking why the G20 has endured this long and what it needs to remain relevant in a dramatically changed world.
The authors discuss Italy's potential recourse to disaster relief from the European Union Solidarity Fund in the wake of recent floods, focusing specifically on how much aid Italy might expect and under what terms.
Italy’s deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini is "convinced" that Italians can help out their government, in the face of a widening yield spread between German and Italian government bonds. The authors assess the feasibility of recourse to household wealth in Italy, and estimate the relative importance of foreign debt-holders in the upcoming bond redemptions.
The results of the latest European Banking Authority stress tests were eagerly awaited for their results on the four biggest Italian banks. At first sight, these banks seem well prepared to withstand an adverse macro-financial shock. But judging by the market reaction following their publication, the results have not appeased investors.
Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House institute, joins Bruegel deputy director Maria Demertzis for an assessment of what progress can be reasonably expected from the final months of the Brexit negotiations.