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Opinion

Another slow year for the global economy

The factors that dragged down the global economy in 2015 will persist – and in some cases even intensify – in the new year.

By: Ashoka Mody Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 5, 2016
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Past Event

Past Event

Secular Stagnation in Europe and Japan

This is the 3rd conference in a series of events jointly organised by Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University and Bruegel

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Marcia De Wachter, Philipp Hartmann, Juan F. Jimeno, Toshiki Jinushi, Yoichi Matsubayashi, Ryuzo Miyao, Rainer Münz, Xavier Ragot, Paul Swaim, Coen Teulings, Atsuko Ueda, Natacha Valla, Guntram B. Wolff, Masahiko Yoshii and Naoyuki Yoshino Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 5, 2015
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Blog Post

Is the economy stationary?

What’s at stake: The question of whether capitalist economies are self-correcting and will eventually revert to mean growth has received renewed interest given the underperformance of most economies six years after the onset of the Great Recessions. While the idea of persistent high unemployment was central to Keynes’ General Theory, it was quickly abandoned by the neoclassical synthesis.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 18, 2015
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Opinion

Why we should not blame the ECB for low returns on German savings

The ECB has lowered its official interest rate several times in the last years and the rate is now at zero. In March of this year, it has in addition started a large sovereign bond purchase programme. Contrary to popular belief, however, the ECB is not the main driver of the decline in interest rates. 

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: May 7, 2015
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Blog Post

Secular stagnation and capital flows

What’s at stake: Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve and new blogger Ben Bernanke has generated many discussions this week by challenging the secular stagnation idea. Bernanke argues, in particular, that the stagnationists have failed to properly take into account how capital flows can mitigate or even eliminate the problems generated by secular stagnation at home.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: April 7, 2015
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Blog Post

What is behind the reduction of private sector debt? Comparing Spain and the UK

Spain and the United Kingdom are going through a deleveraging process, with their private debt-to-GDP ratios dropping by around 18% in the United Kingdom and 15.5% in Spain from their respective peaks some years ago. However, the mechanics behind the deleveraging process show substantial differences between the two countries.

By: Pia Hüttl and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 5, 2014
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Blog Post

The ECB’s balance sheet, if needed

In his press conference on November 6th, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged monetary stimulus, although only “if needed.” These words have won Mr. Draghi many admirers for his determination to move decisively forward. But the actions tell a different story. The “if needed” mantra is only the most recent example of the ECB’s congenital conservatism in dealing with the ever-unfolding crisis. Once again, the ECB is behind the curve even as a debt-deflation cycle is ongoing in the so-called “periphery.” Rather than a central bank that helps revive growth and inflation, the ECB has become a safety net for dealing with near-insolvency conditions. 

By: Ashoka Mody Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 3, 2014
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Blog Post

How can Europe avoid secular stagnation?

Larry Summers crystallized an important question in a recent speech: Has the world economy entered a period of “secular stagnation”? The slow recovery in the United States since the financial crisis is his starting point and he argues that secular stagnation could also retrospectively explain features of previous decades, such as low inflation.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 25, 2014
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Blog Post

Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone

Larry Summers crystallized an important development and question in a recent speech given at the IMF research conference: has the world economy entered a period of “secular stagnation”? The slow recovery in the US since the financial crisis is his starting point and he argues that secular stagnation could retrospectively also explain features of previous decades such as low inflation.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 24, 2014
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Blog Post

Blogs review: The secular stagnation hypothesis

What’s at stake: On November 16, the Harvard economist and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers gave a provocative talk at an International Monetary Fund conference, where he argued that an age of secular stagnation, in which the equilibrium interest rate is negative, might explain the lack of inflationary pressure we experienced in the boom years of the previous decades and the slow recovery following the 2007 crisis.

By: Jérémie Cohen-Setton Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: August 25, 2014
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Video

Video

Secular stagnation in today's economy. How can it be addressed?

This video was filmed as part of the China-Europe-US Economists Symposium in Beijing. In it Gregory Claeys, Research Fellow at Bruegel, discusses secular stagnation – defined as a long period of low growth, low employment, low inflation, and low long-term interest rates. This concept, according to Claeys, could explain the current period of recovery in […]

By: Grégory Claeys and Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 17, 2014
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Opinion

Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation

What role can quantitative easing play? I am not quite as negative on QE as Olivier Blanchard but certainly agree that it cannot fundamentally solve the problem.

By: Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 10, 2014