Blog Post

Is a voluntary Greek debt exchange possible?

The Greek austerity package was approved on Sunday February 13th, making it possible for Greece to receive the second EU-IMF bailout worth €130bn. The vote in favour of the package took place in the background of violent protests in central Athens. As the €14.5bn Greek bond payment on March 20th draws closer, the issue of […]

By: Date: February 13, 2012 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

The Greek austerity package was approved on Sunday February 13th, making it possible for Greece to receive the second EU-IMF bailout worth €130bn. The vote in favour of the package took place in the background of violent protests in central Athens.

As the €14.5bn Greek bond payment on March 20th draws closer, the issue of the private sector accepting a voluntary 50 per cent reduction of the face value of their bonds is becoming more and more pressing. In a recent paper, Mitu Gulati (Duke University) and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (EBRD and CEPR) look into whether a voluntary Greek debt restructuring is possible.

The authors argue that larger creditors may be more easily persuaded to accept a 50 per cent haircut than smaller creditors, given the fact that non-participation may trigger a default. Getting smaller agents to agree to the exchange however, is more problematic, as the Greek government may reassure these creditors that they will be repaid in full even if they choose not to take part in the exchange.

The paper attempts to tackle this free rider problem, assuming that with some probability, the first voluntary haircut will be followed by an involuntary debt restructuring. The authors also suggest that as part of the voluntary exchange, creditors would receive new bonds which protect creditor rights much more than current bonds do. The paper thus models a scenario in which creditors will accept the deal if they perceive a sufficiently high risk of an involuntary debt restructuring in the future.


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint. Anyone is free to republish and/or quote this post without prior consent. Please provide a full reference, clearly stating Bruegel and the relevant author as the source, and include a prominent hyperlink to the original post.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Opening speech by Bruno Le Maire

Bruno Le Maire, minister of the economy and finance, delivered the opening speech at Bruegel's event “The Eurozone agreement – a mini revolution?”, 8 July 2019.

By: Bruno Le Maire Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 9, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU

The authors assess whether the European Commission's actions towards Italy since September 2018 have had a visible impact on the spread between Italian sovereign-bond yields and those of Germany, and particularly whether the Commission’s warnings have acted as a ‘signalling device’ for bond-market participants that it might be difficult for Italy to obtain the support of the ESM or the ECB’s OMT programme if needed.

By: Grégory Claeys and Jan Mazza Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 8, 2019
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

It’s hard to live in the city: Berlin’s rent freeze and the economics of rent control

A proposal in Berlin to ban increases in rent for the next five years sparked intense debate in Germany. Similar policies to the Mietendeckel are currently being discussed in London and NYC. All three proposals reflect and raise similar concerns – the increase in per-capita incomes is not keeping pace with increases in rents, but will a cap do more harm than good? We review recent views on the matter.

By: Inês Goncalves Raposo Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 8, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Eurozone agreement: a mini revolution?

What does the new Eurozone budget do, and what does it not do? What are its strengths and weaknesses?

Speakers: Bruno Le Maire and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: July 8, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: Priorities for the new ECB president

In this Director's Cut of 'The Sound of Economics', Guntram Wolff talks to two of the authors of Bruegel's memo to the new ECB president, Maria Demertzis and Grégory Claeys, to specify the most important issues at the beginning of this eight-year cycle and to clarify the parameters within which the new incumbent will have to work.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 4, 2019
Read article Download PDF

Policy Brief

The threats to the European Union’s economic sovereignty

Memo to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The authors describe the current context and the increasing interlinkages between economics and power politics and the role to play in reinforcing and defending Europe’s economic sovereignty.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: July 4, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Brief

Preparing for uncertainty

Memo to the president of the European Central Bank. Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia present the challenges that the next ECB president will face during the upcoming mandate, reinventing monetary policy in a system riddled with uncertainties.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 3, 2019
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
4-5
08:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019

Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.

Speakers: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Laurence Boone, Claire Bury, Vítor Constâncio, Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis, Ottmar Edenhofer, Baroness Kishwer Falkner of Margravine, Alicia García-Herrero, Danuta Hübner, Mikaela Gavas, José Manuel González-Páramo, Mathew Heim, Yi Huang, Korbinian Ibel, Pascal Lamy, Päivi Leino-Sandberg, Ann Mettler, Ashoka Mody, Mateusz Morawiecki, Mark Leonard, Stefano Manservisi, Erik F. Nielsen, Florence Parly, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lapo Pistelli, Lucrezia Reichlin, Joakim Reiter, André Sapir, Olaf Scholz, Sena Siaw-Boateng, Philipp Steinberg, Alexander Stubb, Ezequiel Szafir, Laura Tyson, Nicolas Véron, Reinhilde Veugelers, Emmanuelle Wargon, Sabine Weyand, Thomas Wieser, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Palais des Academies, Rue Ducale 1, 1000 Brussels
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Director's Cut: ECB monetary policy decisions deconstructed

In this Director’s Cut, Bruegel’s Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis take a deeper look at whether the monetary policy decisions made by the ECB over the past three presidential eras arrived by consensus, by unanimity or by majority votes of the governing council.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 27, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

The evolution of the ECB governing council's decision-making

Before it is decided who will chair the governing council for the next eight years, the authors look back and examine precisely how decisions have been taken since the ECB was created – by unanimity, by majority, or by consensus.

By: Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 27, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Where Brexit goes, the law shall follow

How the financial industry and the law firms that support it are preparing for what comes next

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 25, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

How comprehensive is the EU political realignment?

Has the left-right divide become obsolete in EU politics?

Speakers: David Amiel, Otilia Dhand, Nicolas Véron and Silke Wettach Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 25, 2019
Load more posts