Download publication

Working Paper

Changing trade patterns, unchanging European and global governance

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.

By: and Date: February 25, 2014 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

See also comment ‘The World in 2020

The world economy is going through its biggest transformation in a relatively short space time. There have been many explanations for this phenomenon but the unprecedented scale and pace of this change and, most crucially, its implications, still seems little understood. In turn, there has been little preparation for, or adjustment to, this changing world, though if the change continues at this pace, the effectiveness of many global institutions in their current form will be threatened.

We highlight the dramatic degree of the shifts taking place in world GDP and trade and include fresh projections of what world trade patterns might look like in 2020, should the trends observed over the past decade to continue. We also show the resulting shift in trade relationships for many key countries. European member states tend to have quite different trading partners’ profiles, and this heterogeneity is quite likely to become more pronounced with time. This, in turn, suggests a significant challenge for the effective functioning of the euro area and weakens the original rationale of its creation.

If our projections to 2020 are broadly right, then many established frameworks for the running of the world economy and its governance are not going to be fit for purpose, and will need to change. The global monetary system itself, and global organisations such as the IMF, G7, and G20 are going to have to adapt considerably if they want to remain legitimate representatives of the world order. The alternative is their relegation to irrelevance.

View comments
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Trump's Backfiring Trade Policy

President Trump’s radical trade policy continues, as do trade disputes with China. The president promised to sign far better trade deals, ensure fair treatment of American firms and reduce the United States’ trade deficit. None of these objectives have been met.

By: Uri Dadush and Laurence Kotlikoff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 17, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Working Paper

EU trade policy amid the China-US clash: caught in the crossfire?

What risks face the EU with regard to China’s strategic aims in trade policy and how can the EU respond? The US effort to isolate China poses particular risks for Europe. How can the EU counter such efforts with the aim of forging its own distinct trade policy? How should the EU move forward with reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in light of differing demands and aims of trading blocs like China and the US?

By: Anabel González and Nicolas Véron Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 17, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

The tricky link between the Hong Kong dollar and capital flows

The Hong Kong economy has been hit by a series of shocks, but it should resist taking drastic measures to keep foreign capital in the city.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 13, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Competing Globally: Europe’s Debate Over Trade and Sovereignty

This blog is part of a series following the 2019 Bruegel annual meetings, which brought together nearly 1,000 participants for two days of policy debate and discussion.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry and Rebecca Christie Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Brief

Collective action in a fragmented world

International collective action is in search of a new paradigm. It cannot rely anymore on global binding rules supported by universal institutions. New forms of cooperation have emerged in a number of fields. Europe should equip itself to be an effective player in this new global game. This calls for internal governance reforms.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 11, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

EU-Singapore relations in a global context

At this event Minister S. Iswaran and Commissioner Malmström will discuss Singapore-EU relations, following the signing of a FTA in 2018 and in the context of the global situation.

Speakers: S. Iswaran, Cecilia Malmström and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 11, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Argentina, plus ça change…

Recent primary elections in Argentina saw the defeat by a wide margin of President Macri. This fueled market volatility given expectations of a reversal of reforms after national elections in October; the recent re-introduction of capital controls attests to the extent of the economic fallout. With Macri’s end in sight, this post will review the evolution of the Argentinian economy during his term.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 9, 2019
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

China-EU investment relations: Exploring competition and industrial policies

This is a closed-door workshop jointly organised by MERICS and Bruegel looking at China-EU investment relations.

Speakers: Miguel Ceballos Barón, Alicia García-Herrero, Mikko Huotari, Yi Huang and Xu Sitao Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 9, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Truths about Trade: A speech by Cecilia Malmström

Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade, talks on the truths of EU trade at the Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019.

By: Cecilia Malmström Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 4, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage at BAM19: Europe's trade policy

Backstage at the Bruegel Annual Meetings, Giuseppe Porcaro talks with André Sapir on European trade policy.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 4, 2019
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019

Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.

Speakers: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Georg Boettcher, Laurence Boone, Niels Brab, Claire Bury, Grégory Claeys, Vítor Constâncio, Zsolt Darvas, Kris Dekeyser, Jérôme Delpech, Maria Demertzis, Baroness Kishwer Falkner of Margravine, Ambroise Fayolle, Alicia García-Herrero, Mikaela Gavas, Sven Giegold, José Manuel González-Páramo, Pierre Heilbronn, Mathew Heim, Jamie Heywood, Yi Huang, Danuta Hübner, Korbinian Ibel, Shada Islam, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Brigitte Knopf, Jörg Kukies, Bernd Lange, Päivi Leino-Sandberg, Mark Leonard, Cecilia Malmström, Stefano Manservisi, J. Scott Marcus, Ann Mettler, Ashoka Mody, Reza Moghadam, Erik F. Nielsen, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lapo Pistelli, Lucrezia Reichlin, Joakim Reiter, Victoria Roig, André Sapir, Harriet Sena Siaw-Boateng, Maria Spyraki, Philipp Steinberg, Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Alexander Stubb, Simone Tagliapietra, Jean-Claude Trichet, Laura Tyson, Nicolas Véron, Koen Vervaeke, Reinhilde Veugelers, Jasper Wesseling, Sabine Weyand, Thomas Wieser, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Palais des Academies, Rue Ducale 1, 1000 Brussels Date: September 4, 2019
Read article Download PDF

Book/Special report

Braver, greener, fairer: Memos to the EU leadership 2019-2024

This collected volume, edited by Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff, focusing on the most important economic questions at EU level. The memos covering 16 different files and written by 21 Bruegel scholars, are intended to present the strategic to-do list based on an assessment of the state of affairs and the challenges that will greet the new Commissioners.

By: Maria Demertzis and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: September 3, 2019
Load more posts