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Policy Contribution

Schriftliche Stellungnahme Bundestagsanhörung „Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB“

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the Financial Committee of the German Bundestag. It is only available in German.

By: Date: November 4, 2015 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

See the op-ed by Guntram B. Wolff on the same topic “Why we should not blame the ECB for low returns on German savings

Zusammenfassung

  • Reale Renditen fallen weltweit mindestens seit Anfang der 1980er Jahre, so auch in Deutschland. Die Gründe hierfür werden kontrovers diskutiert. Es handelt sich aber um eine langfriste Veränderung von globalem Spar- und Investitionsverhalten aufgrund von demographischen und strukturellen Faktoren. Geldpolitik ist hierfür nicht ursächlich verantwortlich, muss aber darauf reagieren.
  • Nominalzinssätze, wie z.B. auf dem Girokonto, sind nur begrenzt interessant. Für den Sparer ist der Realzins entscheidend, da bei einer hohen Inflationsrate der hohe Nominalzins lediglich den Kaufkraftverlust durch Inflation ausgleicht. Die reale Rendite auf Bargeld und Einlagen privater Haushalte ist nicht wesentlich gesunken, worauf auch die Bundesbank in ihrem letztem Monatsbericht hinweist.
  • Die Inflationsraten sind im Euroraum seit mehreren Jahren rückläufig, was darauf hindeutet, dass die EZB eher zu langsam den Leitzinssatz gesenkt hat. Dies könnte mitverantwortlich sein für die Verschärfung der Rezession im Euroraum. Ein Anheben des Leitzinses in derzeitigen Umständen wäre der wirtschaftlichen Erholung abträglich und würde auch in Deutschland zu noch niedrigeren Inflationsraten führen.
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