Opinion

中國投資轉向 服務業領航

傳統印象中,中國投資以工業為主,但仔細分析中國經濟數據可發現,中國投資主體早已轉為服務業,佔整體中國投資的三分之二,而傳統工業(排除政府的公共、交通、水利等投資)僅佔全部投資三分之一。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章已发表于香港特区政府指定刊登法定通告/广告的中文日报“香港经济日报”:

傳統印象中,中國投資以工業為主,但仔細分析中國經濟數據可發現,中國投資主體早已轉為服務業,佔整體中國投資的三分之二,而傳統工業(排除政府的公共、交通、水利等投資)僅佔全部投資三分之一。這趨勢背後體現的是中國經濟的結構轉型,伴隨經濟規模不斷擴大,中國經濟將實現從工業向服務業的轉型,新增投資也必然追隨這一趨勢轉向服務業。

事實上,服務業投資在過去幾年表現非常堅挺,儘管同樣經歷2013年以來的持續下滑,但是在2015年下半年以後,這一頹勢已經得以扭轉,服務業投資的增長率穩定在10%以上。與此同時,中國的工業投資一路下滑,在2017年的某些月份甚至增速接近0,主導了中國在2015年以後投資的持續下滑。投資在服務業和工業的分化,加上近來服務業PMI指數明顯優於工業,也正在體現經濟轉型的過程。

三大產業投資突出

服務業中有三大產業的投資尤為突出,分別為水利環境、交通運輸及房地產行業,共佔中國整體投資超過80%。前兩項於過去幾年快速增長,增速介乎20%至30%之間,成為引領中國固定資產投資增長的兩個重要領域。我們認為,這兩項投資在2018年仍然會顯著提升。

首先,中國的水利及環境問題依舊突出,水資源不足及水旱災害頻繁的問題仍沒解決,而污染問題更逐漸成為社會最為詬病的症狀之一,加上公共設施投資依靠政府主導,因此受市場波動的影響較小。中國官方預計,傳統環保業務(水、氣、固廢)的投資於「十三五」期間將保持在25%左右的增速 ,水利投資也有可能達到增速超過20%。

物流活動強勢增長

另外,中國的物流業發展亦充滿機遇。其中物流業景氣指數在多數時間段都超過50%。從後期走勢來看,2017年12月最新的物流新訂單指數為53.5%,業務活動預期指數為55.8%,預示未來的物流活動將會保持穩健增長。

唯一令人擔憂的是房地產投資,政府限購政策令社會的房地產熱情開始消減,一線城市的房價甚至出現負增長,再加上政府對房企發債的限制,房地產投資堪憂。隨着房地產待售面積的不斷下降,儘管房企在未來一兩年內開始補充存貨,但如果政府調控政策依舊保持偏緊的態度,尤其是金融上仍然對房地產企業加以限制,房地產投資在2018年有機會保持平穩。事實上,資金環境日趨緊張,在岸發債早被叫停,政府顯然開始減少對房地產企業的金融支援。考慮到房地產企業投資對整體經濟的拉動作用,其效應將會大於前述兩項投資。

綜上推斷,服務業投資將在今年出現一定的分化,房地產投資預計依舊偏低,但是其他類型的服務業投資將會保持穩健,因此服務業整體投資在2018年依舊應保持較為平穩的增長。

法國外貿銀行大中華區高級經濟學家徐建煒對此文也有貢獻


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