Opinion

亞洲加息潮料難改增長勢態

儘管中國在去年底前經濟增長有所放緩,亞洲主要經濟體在2017年仍取得強勁增長,繼續對全球增長作出最大貢獻。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章已发表于香港特区政府指定刊登法定通告/广告的中文日报“香港经济日报”:

儘管中國在去年底前經濟增長有所放緩,亞洲主要經濟體在2017年仍取得強勁增長,繼續對全球增長作出最大貢獻。依賴出口貿易推動經濟增長的亞洲經濟體在2017年均交出了優異的成績單,特別是越南、馬來西亞、新加坡和韓國等外向型經濟體。 多年的寬鬆貨幣環境、庫存調整、人員減少、滙率下行等拉動需求反彈。 此外,特別是對韓國這樣處於供應鏈關鍵位置的經濟體來說,科技熱潮有效地推動了全球市場對亞洲商品的需求。

搭乘全球經濟擴張的順風車,儘管增速可能放緩,2018年對外向型經濟體來說可能又是一個好年頭。 我們預計,有利的基數效應和科技熱潮的提振在2018年將減弱。雖然增長幅度會小於2017年,但全球需求復甦的前景依然光明。2018年,外向型經濟體若能夠把握全球需求復甦的機會,將可以進一步提升整體經濟表現。

中國經濟將逐漸放緩

我們預計,中國經濟將逐漸放緩,不過在2018年依然將保持中高速的6.5%左右的增長,而2019年將繼續放緩至6.3%。2017年,消費保持彈性增長,2018年會繼續為經濟增長作出積極貢獻。在低基數效應的幫助下,尤其是十九大後的政策方向更加明確,投資環境的不確定因素減少,服務業和下游工業行業的投資逐步回升,但這並不足以抵消政府推進去槓桿和去產能對房地產和上游行業造成的下行壓力。

我們預計,在全球需求繼續改善的情況下,未來一年出口將有所回升。另一方面,在中國向消費型經濟轉型的過程中,進口有望繼續強勁增長。但是,中國正在逐漸失去低勞動力成本的優勢,這給勞動密集型產業帶來了不小的競爭壓力。同時,由於日益增加的民生事業投資和不斷推進的去槓桿進程,刺激經濟增長的財政政策空間也將收窄。

印度勢將強勁復甦

相反,我們預計印度經濟將在未來兩年強勁復甦。2017年上半年,由於私人和公共部門的資本支出都呈觀望態勢,經濟增長放緩。 但是,第三季度投資從第二季度的1.6%上升至4.7%,顯示出回暖的跡象。除此之外,有利的基數效應、廢鈔令影響減退和近期注入320億美元的國有銀行重組,也將支持投資總體反彈。

我們預計,面對上行的通脹率,各亞洲主要央行只會小幅加息。韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、泰國和澳洲央行預計會加息,但是實際利率仍會保持低位。

中美關係趨緊成風險

但這一切都存在潛在風險。在金融方面的最主要風險來自於美國聯儲局可能將更積極地推進貨幣政策正常化。更為嚴峻的風險是,朝鮮半島可能升級的地緣政治風險和趨於緊張的中美關係。

進一步來看,由於中國增長結構性受限和亞洲較多國家的老齡化加速,讓我們對該地區的中長期展望並不樂觀。另外,隨着中國推進其「世紀工程」──「一帶一路」計劃,地緣政治在中期內會持續變化,直接影響亞洲其他地區。隨着亞洲其他地區日益依賴中國,以中印關係和中日關係為首的雙邊關係可能惡化。

法國外貿銀行亞太區經濟學家吳卓殷對此文也有貢獻


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