Opinion

港元真正挑戰為未來資本逆流風險

自美聯儲啟動加息周期兩年多以來,港元重回市場焦點,除了貨幣轉弱及波動 增加,港美息差亦持續擴闊。最近,港元再次開始貶值,導致市場擔憂加劇。由於港元利率仍然 處於「信用區間」內,我們認為目前情況仍然受控。

By: Date: March 13, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

这篇评论文章发表在:

 

*貶值故事重演,但無損港元信用*

我們認為近期港元及HIBOR處於低位源於市場對預期港元未來將會升值,這間接顯示市
場對貨幣發行局制度信心強大。首先,投資者預計港元升值將補償低利率帶來的損失,所以仍然
願意持有港元。其次,如果利率偏離「信用區間」,金管局仍可以採取一系列措施顯示維護港元
聯繫匯率制度決心,因此我們仍然對港元信心不變。

*流動性仍然非常充裕*

全球金融危機之後,港元聯繫匯率制度及美國量化寬鬆政策,加上自2014年以來的中國
資本外流,均使大量資金流入香港。與香港經濟規模相比,資本流入總量顯然非常龐大。自2016年以來,這更令香港銀行同業持續低於倫敦銀行同業拆息。
看出大量資金停泊於香港的端倪在於融資活動大幅增加,但港元拆息只輕微上升。當流動性 從前因為種種原因緊絀時,隔夜拆息可以升至高於5%,但目前即使市場上股權及債券融資大增,隔夜拆息在2016年前幾乎沒有變化,而在2017年息差擴大後才高升。我們預計 HIBOR趨勢將隨LIBOR上升而緊密變化,隨著預期2018年融資活動增加,特別是首 次公開募股(IPO),流入香港的資金有可能進一步推遲港美息差縮小的時機。

*金管局有一系列措施回應*

隨著過去資金流入加快,2008年以來貨幣基數已經擴大了5倍,使得港元頻頻貼近強方兌換保證。自此以來,金管局以多種方式回應,當市場匯率轉強至7﹒75港元兌1美元的強方兌換保證匯率,金管局向銀行沽出港元及買入美元,另一方面,金管局亦可以發行外匯基金票據管理銀行間流動性,更於最近額外發行票據紓緩港元貶值,以及幫助銀行面對巴塞爾協議III的需求。最後,當港元匯率到達兌換保證任何一方,金管局當然利用外匯干預。

*快速資本逆流風險為未來挑戰*

香港一方面為資本自由流動及高度開放的市場,亦同時受到貨幣發行局制度保護,資本流動金額不但巨大,更可能影響經濟活動。因此,未來最明顯的考驗為大量資本快速流出香港,在可預見的未來,最困難的潛在情況為美聯儲及人民幣同時衝擊港元。萬一美聯儲加快縮表步伐,美元全球流動性會迅速下降,如加上人民幣強勢令其計價資產日益吸引,可能會導致資金離開香港,轉向流入中國境內。這兩者同時發生可能會導致港元流動性枯竭,並大大推高拆息。換句話說,我們不擔心弱港元及低拆息,真正的挑戰為未來可能出現的弱港元及高拆息,這情況下的流動性緊縮可能比今天港元市場所看到的更嚴重。


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