Opinion

中國金融大幅開放:這次會否不同?

上周中國國家主席習近平在第17屆博鰲論壇上的演講宣布中國將進一步對世界開放。

By: Date: April 18, 2018 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

该意见稿已发表于:

上周中國國家主席習近平在第17屆博鰲論壇上的演講宣布中國將進一步對世界開放。其中之一是金融業,中國人民銀行行長易綱進一步證實了對外開放金融業的舉措。儘管官方清單看似很長,涵蓋11項內容,從放寬金融機構的外資所有權到大幅擴大外資銀行的業務範圍,但大部分已在去年11月特朗普訪華時或在中國2001加入世界貿易組織(WTO)時
提及。

開放時間表年內實行

雖然目前很難判斷這一次中國是否真的會大幅度開放金融業是否會與以往有所不同,但至少我們可以從潛在投資者的反應中觀察並得出這種潛在開放頗為薄弱,唯一相關的消息是瑞士聯合銀行推出首支境內私募證券投資基金(現有合資企業),但該消息實際上在2017年11月宣布開放之前已公布。

隨著最近中美貿易戰局勢升級,易綱公布了中國有關計畫實施的金融開放的更多細節,相比之前11月份公布內容更加開放,涵蓋銀行、保險、證券和資產管理。例如新增大幅度擴大外資銀行業務範圍,但仍不確定將放寬的業務類型。將證券公司、基金管理公司、期貨公司、人身險公司的外資持股比例的上限放寬到51%。

市場開放以自身利益為主

但是,中國顯然在市場開放上以保護自身利益為主,而不是提供免費午餐。在銀行資產負債表大幅增長和不良貸款堆積後,中國監管機構希望對市場(具有中國特色)進行清理。過去幾年內,中國的大規模證券化顯然受益於國外專業知識。如果外國公司可以吸引外國投資者分享潛在損失,情況將會變得更好。因此中國將金融業開放實在情理之中。此外,滬深通的每日額度將從2018年5月1日擴大四倍,由於MSCI包含A股,這對市場預期良好,這有助於資本流入中國。

自去年特朗普訪問後,中國政府對金融開放的舉措並沒有緩和美國政府對中國的立場,當這次博鰲論壇上提及的多數內容其實與之前公布的政策沒有大變化時,我們很難想像美國政府立場會忽然軟化。此前,美國已正式宣布反對中國從WTO獲得的市場經濟地位,而現在美國對華貿易的立場越來越強硬,真正的原因在於知識產權和「中國製造2025」目標威脅到美國自身優勢,加上北韓問題依然存在,這也表明獲得中國金融市場上少許經營牌照不會讓兩國關係改善。雖然金融開放的速度有所增加,但中國仍然可以透過政手段控制不同國家的參與程度,尤其是美國,因此中美關係的發展依然不平穩及充滿變數。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jan
30
12:30

The future of think tanks and policy advice

This event takes a look at the future of think tanks and policy advice. Current opportunities and threats will be discussed.

Speakers: Olena Carbou, Goret Pereira Paulo, Giuseppe Porcaro and Anthony Teasdale Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article Download PDF More by this author

External Publication

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 16, 2020
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Stability remains key to China

The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks of the households' ability to purchase durable goods

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 15, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Will Iran disrupt the global economy?

Last Friday, Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ QUDS force, was killed by an American airstrike outside Baghdad airport. The Ayatollah was not pleased and Tehran has promised to retaliate. At the time of recording, the world is still waiting to see how Iran might respond. Some of have speculated that they could disrupt the world’s oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a vital artery for around a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost a quarter of the world’s oil. Today, oil prices surpassed $70 and if tension escalates the price is bound to grow. How dependent is the global economy on affordable Middle Eastern fossil fuel? This week, Nicholas Barrett is joined by Maria Demertzis and Niclas Poitiers to discuss how the US-Iran hostilities are affecting global economy.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 6, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

A decade to remember (or possibly to forget) for economists

2019 is coming to an end and so is the decade. How did economics change the world over the last ten years? And did the world change economics? Which economics books defined the last ten years? And what should we anticipate in the decade to come? Today, Nicholas Barrett discusses the past and the future with Niclas Poitiers and Maria Demertzis.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 20, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

The WTO is dead: long live the WTO?

Should the EU fight to save the WTO when the US seeks to dismantle it? We argue that the only way for the EU to decide that is to first understand the US’s strategy (as distinct from its tactics) and then make up its mind in terms of how much of a threat it perceives China to be.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 20, 2019
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

2019 on #econtwitter, in a million tweets

What did academic economists talk about in 2019? I collected one million tweets from popular academic economists over the year, and analysed the topics discussed.

By: Enrico Bergamini Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: December 19, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Lessons from the China-US trade truce

The tentatively agreed deal between China and the United States temporarily stops a dangerous dynamic, yet it falls far short of the negotiating objectives of both sides. US trade policy has become a dominion of the executive branch guided principally by the President’s electoral interests. Meanwhile, China demonstrates its capacity to resist pressure: it will enact structural reforms at its own pace in line with its interests. Sadly, the deal confirms that the United States no longer feels obligated to follow WTO rules, and can induce others to do the same.

By: Uri Dadush and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 19, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Capture the nodes

How do states exercise power through global economic networks? The multilateral world order is supposed to be harmonious, but by seizing the nodes of production, powerful forces can control access to the global economic system and threaten to lock their rival out. This week, Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff are joined by Henry Farrell, Professor of political science and international affairs at the George Washington University, and Abraham L. Newman, Professor of Government at the Georgetown University, to discuss their theory of weaponised interdependency

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 16, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Appellate Body Politic

This week, the WTO's Appellate Body, the dispute settlement body, became inoperational: it no longer has the necessary number of judges to render verdicts. What does this mean for international trade and multilateralism? Are we now living in a world without dispute settlement? This week, Guntram Wolff is joined by Alan Beattie, the author of the FT's new Trade Secrets newsletter, and Alicia García-Herrero to discuss the crisis of the Appellate Body.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 12, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Japanese economy: Déjà vu – but worse

It is difficult to imagine how Japan can undertake any major economic reform if it has taken five years to increase the consumption tax and has needed two strong fiscal packages.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 12, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The Great Reversal-Causes and implications of the rising corporate concentration in the US

During this event, Thomas Philippon presented his thesis on market concentration and explained the reasons behind the rising corporate market power in the US.

Speakers: Thomas Philippon, Georgios Petropoulos and Reinhilde Veugelers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 11, 2019
Load more posts