Opinion

中國加速金融開放,但不確定性依然存在

在外部壓力加劇的形勢下,中國似乎有意加快開放市場,而擴大開放的重要一步是金融領域。中國可以通過金融開放讓全世界分享盈利,但屆時實際上也能從中受益。外界壓力雖然促進金融開放,但可能並不是背後的主因。

By: Date: May 24, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

在外部壓力加劇的形勢下,中國似乎有意加快開放市場,而擴大開放的重要一步是金融領域。中國國家主席習近平在博鰲論壇上宣布了金融開放意象,其後人行行長易綱公布了更多細節。然而,這次公開的開放舉措與2017年11月美國總統特朗普訪華期間所公開的措施並無太大不同,因此問題在於是實際金融開放到底有多大。為了回答這個問題,我們將研究中國金融市場的外資份額,並分析近期在金融開放方面的舉措。

目前金融業的外資份額佔比仍然很低,除了銀行以外,其他金融業幾乎都是依靠合資企業模式。先以外商獨資的銀行為例,2017年外資銀行在總資產的佔比下降至1﹒3%,原因之一也許是因為外資企業在貨幣和非貨幣方面的商業成本以及風險方面都相對較高。在中國營運的外資銀行的成本收入比高達66%,幾乎是中國本土銀行的兩倍,這也是為什麼外資銀行資產回報率遠低於本土銀行的原因,這些因素不但導致外資減持中國銀行業股份,而且減緩了對中國的金融直接投資。

在中外合資企業方面,去年的外資券商份額縮小至3﹒9%。人壽保險是外資在市場份額唯一增加的行業(2017年佔比為7﹒2%)。人口老齡化是保險產品和投資的主要推動力,同時外企普遍在保險產品創新和投資組合管理方面具有更全面的經驗。基金方面,2016年外資合資企業的市場份額保持在40%的高位,但海外投資者通常並不佔據較大份額的股權。

此次進一步開放經濟的公告包含取消銀行和金融資產管理公司的外資持股比例限制的執行時間表,加速開放保險業進程,人壽保險公司的外資持股比例的上限放寬到51%並將在今年6月30日之前落實,取代了之前宣布的三年後將放寬比例上限至51%的公告。此外,證券公司、基金管理公司、期貨公司的外資持股比例的上限也將在今年6月30日前放寬到51%,三年以
後不再設限。

取消股權比例的硬性限制有助於吸引現金流,但軟性約束條件依然是外資進入中國市場的主要障礙。誠然外資的確可以通過此次開放在中國市場分一杯羹,對於市場不斷擴大且外資市場份額持續提升的保險業而言尤為如此,不過取消股權上限並不意味著立即開放。例如,對於控股外商投資證券公司的公司資本要求是淨資產不低於1000億人民幣,這限制了很多公司以獨資或大股東形式進入中國市場。

中國在金融開放的加速本質上並不是僅僅對外界壓力的回應。關鍵在於中國對自身利益也有很強的訴求,通過證券化來清理銀行的問題貸款仍在繼續。證券化專業知識的發展也和中國金融體系演變息息相關。換而言之,中國可以通過金融開放讓全世界分享盈利,但屆時實際上也能從中受益。外界壓力雖然促進金融開放,但可能並不是背後的主因。我們目前已經看到更多的公司(如野村證券、瑞穗金融、摩根大通)都在考慮申請許可證或者增加證券公司的持有份額,但歸根究底,鑑於很多企業對於以往的投資經歷並不滿意,最重要的問題外國投資者是否相信及使用這次機會。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Banking after Brexit

Will Brexit damage Britain's financial services industry? Or is talk of its diminished status just a storm in a teacup? The City of London could move closer to Wall Street or it might become "Singapore-on-Thames". Nicholas Barrett talks to Rebecca Christie about banking after Brexit.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 16, 2020
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Jan
29
12:30

Take a chance on me: Sweden considers the Banking Union

This event will discuss if Sweden should join the European banking union and the general state of the union.

Speakers: Fredrik Bystedt, Elena Carletti, Maria Demertzis and Pawel Gąsiorowski Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Feb
12
08:30

Hybrid threats in the financial system

This one-day workshop will focus on hybrid threats in the context of the financial system by examining vulnerabilities and raising awareness, looking for solutions in the form of effective protection measures and improved resilience.

Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

2019 on #econtwitter, in a million tweets

What did academic economists talk about in 2019? I collected one million tweets from popular academic economists over the year, and analysed the topics discussed.

By: Enrico Bergamini Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Date: December 19, 2019
Read article More by this author

Opinion

Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario

The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 11, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Non-performing loans’ legacy versus secondary markets

Eleven years since the start of Europe’s financial crisis, and the legacy of non-performing loans in the EU, though much smaller, is still a live issue for some member states.

By: Joanna Surala Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 10, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Recovery and Resolution Planning for Europe’s cross-border banks

This workshop will discuss recovery and resolution plans in the CEE countries

Speakers: Sebastiano Laviola, Alexander Lehmann, Boris Vujčić, Alexander Benkwitz, Roland Mechtler, Sofia Toscano Rico, Krzysztof Broda, Radek Urban, Dejan Vasiljev, Emil Vonvea and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: December 6, 2019
Read article Download PDF

Policy Contribution

European Parliament

The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability

Recent developments have re-opened the debate on the future of money. This Policy Contribution discusses two aspects: the implications of the rise of global private stablecoins, such as Facebook's Libra, and the role that public central bank digital currencies could play.

By: Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: December 2, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

A Major Step Toward Combating Money Laundering in Europe

Combating money laundering in Europe took a momentous step with finance ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, and Spain putting forward a joint proposal.

By: Nicolas Véron and Joshua Kirschenbaum Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: November 25, 2019
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Bank regulation in the European Union neighbourhood: limits of the ‘Brussels effect’

The EU model of financial market regulation is increasingly copied by third countries. In this context, the EU’s efforts to promote its model beyond its borders should take into account the underdevelopment of financial markets in many partner countries, and the often insufficient capacity of regulators and supervisors.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: November 20, 2019
Read article Download PDF More by this author

Policy Contribution

Crisis management for euro-area banks in central Europe

Euro-area bank integration has decreased as post-financial crisis national rules require banks to hold more capital at home. It might be undermined further by bank resolution planning. Either a Single Resolution Board takes the lead for the entire banking group or independent local intervention schemes need to be developed for crisis resolution.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: November 19, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The convergence in EU rules for insolvency and enforcement

Progress with the convergence of national insolvency rules is essential for achieving financial integration in the euro area. How much progress has the EU made on this?

Speakers: John Berrigan, Reinhard Dammann, Alexander Lehmann and Sophie Vermeille Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: October 31, 2019
Load more posts