Opinion

人民幣國際化需要政策導向,更需要建立信心

人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

By: Date: June 22, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

2018年對人民幣國際化來說是特殊的一年:這不僅是香港人民幣離岸中心成立15周年,也是人民幣原油期貨在上海上市交易和A股納入MSCI的一年。人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

雖然新聞版面上充斥著人民幣將很快將取代美元成為主要國際貨幣的消息,但實際情況是,2015年8月匯率改革以來的兩年間,人民幣國際化進程止步不前,且前路漫漫。2016年將人民幣納入SDR是過去幾年人民幣作為官方計價貨幣發展的里程碑,但這更多是象徵性地推動人民幣的國際使用,目前尚未有官方貨幣正式與人民幣掛勾。

我們首先看看去年的發展情況。人民幣作為國際貨幣的最主要用途是交換媒介。然而,自2016年以來,人民幣結算的貿易總量明顯下降,且至今沒有明顯回升跡象。而國際貨幣在官方領域的使用以雙邊貨幣互換為主,目前人民幣的貨幣互換總量達到3萬億元以上,迄今為止最大規模的協議是與香港簽署的4000億元人民幣港幣互換。好消息是2017年年中以來,人民幣形式下的對內和對外直接投資回升。雖然佔總量的比例仍然很小,海外投資者持有的人民幣股票和債券總量也有所增加。

展望未來,政府政策應該會繼續支持人民幣走出國門。人民幣原油期貨顯示了中國石油公司提高在國際原油市場議價能力的願景。另外,中國跨境銀行間支付系統(CIPS)於2018年5月啟動旨在覆蓋所有時區和市場的第二階段,將大大推動人民幣跨境支付。預計A股納入MSCI和債券納入彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數等最新發展也將吸引資本流入在岸市場

正如上述發展所示,中國正在努力提高人民幣資產的吸引力,並降低相關交易成本。股票和債券互聯的成功似乎提供了中國在封閉資本帳戶情況下開放資本流動控制管道的解決方案。然而,人民幣國際化的最終答案在於信心,這也是其面臨的一個不可避免的挑戰。儘管中國政府可以在放鬆政策的情況下促進短期內資金流入和利用,特別是考慮到中國資產的經濟規模,中國資產的外資持股比例顯然太小,但吸引真正的外資流入並促進人民幣的國際化用途需要更加市場化的方法。隨著地緣政治風險的加劇,人民幣國際化的前路只會變得更加複雜。人民幣國際化將需要放鬆資本管制,這推動可能會加強中國的軟實力,但同時也意味著中國將受到更多的外部波動的衝擊。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

The 4th industrial revolution: opportunities and challenges for Europe and China

What is the current status of EU-China relations concerning innovation, and what might their future look like?

Speakers: Elżbieta Bieńkowska, Chen Dongxiao, Patrick Child, Eric Cornuel, Maria Demertzis, Ding Yuan, Luigi Gambardella, Jiang Jianqing, Frank Kirchner, Pascal Lamy, Li Mingjun, Gwenn Sonck, Gerard Van Schaik, Reinhilde Veugelers, Wang Hongjian, Guntram B. Wolff, Xu Bin, Zhang Hongjun and Zhou Snow Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: July 12, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

What bond markets tell about China’s economy

Macro data doesn’t provide a comprehensive picture to investors, but bond issuance data can fill in some gaps.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 10, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Brexit banking exodus creates a dilemma for Dublin

Irish consumers’ interests may not coincide with the needs of banks relocating here.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 10, 2019
Read article Download PDF

Policy Brief

The threats to the European Union’s economic sovereignty

Memo to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The authors describe the current context and the increasing interlinkages between economics and power politics and the role to play in reinforcing and defending Europe’s economic sovereignty.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: July 4, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Farewell, flat world

In the last 50 years, the most important economic development has been the diminishing income gap between the richer and poorer countries. Now, there is a growing realisation that transformations in the global economy have been re-established centrally from intangible investments, to digital networks, to finance and exchange rates.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 2, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

The breakdown of the covered interest rate parity condition

A textbook condition of international finance breaks down. Economic research identifies the interplay between divergent monetary policies and new financial regulation as the source of the puzzle, and generates concerns about unintended consequences for financing conditions and financial stability.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 1, 2019
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
4-5
08:30

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019

Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.

Speakers: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Laurence Boone, Claire Bury, Vítor Constâncio, Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis, Ottmar Edenhofer, Baroness Kishwer Falkner of Margravine, Alicia García-Herrero, Danuta Hübner, Mikaela Gavas, José Manuel González-Páramo, Mathew Heim, Yi Huang, Korbinian Ibel, Pascal Lamy, Päivi Leino-Sandberg, Ann Mettler, Ashoka Mody, Mateusz Morawiecki, Mark Leonard, Stefano Manservisi, Erik F. Nielsen, Florence Parly, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Lapo Pistelli, Lucrezia Reichlin, Joakim Reiter, André Sapir, Olaf Scholz, Sena Siaw-Boateng, Philipp Steinberg, Alexander Stubb, Ezequiel Szafir, Laura Tyson, Nicolas Véron, Reinhilde Veugelers, Emmanuelle Wargon, Sabine Weyand, Thomas Wieser, Guntram B. Wolff and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Palais des Academies, Rue Ducale 1, 1000 Brussels
Read about event

Upcoming Event

Sep
9
08:30

China-EU investment relations: Exploring competition and industrial policies

What parts of Sino-European cooperation are most essential for European leaders? What is the future of an EU-China partnership, and which areas are most important?

Speakers: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Tech-enabled payment processes: policy implications of new developments

What challenges does a shift towards new payment processes imply for EU financial services policy?

Speakers: Rebecca Christie, Etienne Goosse, Chirag Patel, Jörn-Jakob Röber, Johannes Vermeire and Nicolas Véron Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 25, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

Redefining Europe’s economic sovereignty

This Policy Contribution delves into the position of the EU in the current global order. China and the United States increasingly trying to gain geopolitical advantage using their economic might. The authors examine the specific problems that China and the US pose for European economic sovereignty, and consider how the EU and its member states can better protect European economic sovereignty.

By: Mark Leonard, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Elina Ribakova, Jeremy Shapiro and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 25, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

China’s investment in Africa: consequences for Europe

How is Chinese investment impacting Africa, and what could be the consequences for Europe?

Speakers: Solange Chatelard, Maria Demertzis, Alicia García-Herrero, Abraham Liu and Estelle Youssouffa Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 24, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Financial inclusion of SMEs for growth and job creation

How can increased access to finance benefit SMEs? What reforms are needed to encourage SME financial inclusion?

Speakers: Jihad Azour, Bruno Balvanera, Zsolt Darvas, Barbara Marchitto, Anta Ndoye and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 21, 2019
Load more posts