Opinion

人民幣國際化需要政策導向,更需要建立信心

人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

By: Date: June 22, 2018 Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation

该意见稿已发表于:

2018年對人民幣國際化來說是特殊的一年:這不僅是香港人民幣離岸中心成立15周年,也是人民幣原油期貨在上海上市交易和A股納入MSCI的一年。人民幣國際化對於提升中國軟實力、降低匯率風險、有效利用中國龐大的外匯儲備、推動跨境貿易和投資具有重要意義;但真正的問題在於人民幣國際化迄今取得了多大進展。

雖然新聞版面上充斥著人民幣將很快將取代美元成為主要國際貨幣的消息,但實際情況是,2015年8月匯率改革以來的兩年間,人民幣國際化進程止步不前,且前路漫漫。2016年將人民幣納入SDR是過去幾年人民幣作為官方計價貨幣發展的里程碑,但這更多是象徵性地推動人民幣的國際使用,目前尚未有官方貨幣正式與人民幣掛勾。

我們首先看看去年的發展情況。人民幣作為國際貨幣的最主要用途是交換媒介。然而,自2016年以來,人民幣結算的貿易總量明顯下降,且至今沒有明顯回升跡象。而國際貨幣在官方領域的使用以雙邊貨幣互換為主,目前人民幣的貨幣互換總量達到3萬億元以上,迄今為止最大規模的協議是與香港簽署的4000億元人民幣港幣互換。好消息是2017年年中以來,人民幣形式下的對內和對外直接投資回升。雖然佔總量的比例仍然很小,海外投資者持有的人民幣股票和債券總量也有所增加。

展望未來,政府政策應該會繼續支持人民幣走出國門。人民幣原油期貨顯示了中國石油公司提高在國際原油市場議價能力的願景。另外,中國跨境銀行間支付系統(CIPS)於2018年5月啟動旨在覆蓋所有時區和市場的第二階段,將大大推動人民幣跨境支付。預計A股納入MSCI和債券納入彭博巴克萊全球綜合指數等最新發展也將吸引資本流入在岸市場

正如上述發展所示,中國正在努力提高人民幣資產的吸引力,並降低相關交易成本。股票和債券互聯的成功似乎提供了中國在封閉資本帳戶情況下開放資本流動控制管道的解決方案。然而,人民幣國際化的最終答案在於信心,這也是其面臨的一個不可避免的挑戰。儘管中國政府可以在放鬆政策的情況下促進短期內資金流入和利用,特別是考慮到中國資產的經濟規模,中國資產的外資持股比例顯然太小,但吸引真正的外資流入並促進人民幣的國際化用途需要更加市場化的方法。隨著地緣政治風險的加劇,人民幣國際化的前路只會變得更加複雜。人民幣國際化將需要放鬆資本管制,這推動可能會加強中國的軟實力,但同時也意味著中國將受到更多的外部波動的衝擊。


Republishing and referencing

Bruegel considers itself a public good and takes no institutional standpoint.

Due to copyright agreements we ask that you kindly email request to republish opinions that have appeared in print to communication@bruegel.org.

View comments
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

EU support for SME IPOs should be part of a broader package that unlocks equity finance

The incoming Commission President has put support for SMEs at the centre of her economic programme. A public-private fund investing in initial public offerings should be carefully targeted, primarily at small firms with risky projects. The announced SME strategy and further measures under the Capital Markets Union programme should address numerous other barriers to both public and private equity finance.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 16, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

China's dual banking system: consolidation as the final solution for weak small banks

There are fundamental solvency and liquidity issues for some small Chinese banks, widely influencing both the bond market as well as the broader financial sector. Given the difficulties in creating a level playing field between small and large banks, there is an expectation that small banks will continue to under-perform.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 16, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

The tricky link between the Hong Kong dollar and capital flows

The Hong Kong economy has been hit by a series of shocks, but it should resist taking drastic measures to keep foreign capital in the city.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 13, 2019
Read article Download PDF

Policy Contribution

European Parliament

Hybrid and cybersecurity threats and the European Union’s financial system

The authors document the rise in hybrid threats and cyber attacks in the European Union. Exploring preparations to increase the resilience of the financial system they find that at the individual institutional level, significant measures have been taken, but the EU finance ministers should advance a broader political discussion on the integration of the EU security architecture applicable to the financial system.

By: Maria Demertzis and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: September 12, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Blog Post

Competing Globally: Europe’s Debate Over Trade and Sovereignty

This blog is part of a series following the 2019 Bruegel annual meetings, which brought together nearly 1,000 participants for two days of policy debate and discussion.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry and Rebecca Christie Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2019
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Policy Brief

Collective action in a fragmented world

International collective action is in search of a new paradigm. It cannot rely anymore on global binding rules supported by universal institutions. New forms of cooperation have emerged in a number of fields. Europe should equip itself to be an effective player in this new global game. This calls for internal governance reforms.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 11, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

EU-Singapore relations in a global context

At this event Minister S. Iswaran and Commissioner Malmström will discuss Singapore-EU relations, following the signing of a FTA in 2018 and in the context of the global situation.

Speakers: S. Iswaran, Cecilia Malmström and André Sapir Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 11, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Argentina, plus ça change…

Recent primary elections in Argentina saw the defeat by a wide margin of President Macri. This fueled market volatility given expectations of a reversal of reforms after national elections in October; the recent re-introduction of capital controls attests to the extent of the economic fallout. With Macri’s end in sight, this post will review the evolution of the Argentinian economy during his term.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 9, 2019
Read about event

Past Event

Past Event

China-EU investment relations: Exploring competition and industrial policies

This is a closed-door workshop jointly organised by MERICS and Bruegel looking at China-EU investment relations.

Speakers: Miguel Ceballos Barón, Alicia García-Herrero, Mikko Huotari, Yi Huang and Xu Sitao Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: September 9, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage at BAM19: How much further reform is needed for the new financial sector?

Backstage at the Bruegel Annual Meetings, Rebecca Christie talks with Nicolas Véron on the new financial sector.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: September 5, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Blog Post

Truths about Trade: A speech by Cecilia Malmström

Cecilia Malmström, European Commissioner for Trade, talks on the truths of EU trade at the Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019.

By: Cecilia Malmström Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 4, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Podcast

Podcast

Backstage at BAM19: Europe's trade policy

Backstage at the Bruegel Annual Meetings, Giuseppe Porcaro talks with André Sapir on European trade policy.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 4, 2019
Load more posts