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Deep Focus: Consequences of European Central Bank forecasting errors

Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas speaks about his review of systematic errors in ECB forecasting, in another instalment of the Deep Focus podcast on 'The Sound of Economics' channel

By: Date: December 12, 2018 Topic: Uncategorized

In this episode of the Deep Focus, Sean Gibson speaks with Bruegel senior scholar Zsolt Darvas about his research on European Central Bank forecasting.

Zsolt has analysed that, over the past five years, ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted.

Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation, and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.

You may also be interested in this blog post by Zsolt Darvas, which contains charts illustrating just how erroneous the ECB’s forecasting on inflation and unemployment has become in recent times.

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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: July 10, 2019
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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 4, 2019
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Policy Brief

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Memo to the president of the European Central Bank. Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia present the challenges that the next ECB president will face during the upcoming mandate, reinventing monetary policy in a system riddled with uncertainties.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 3, 2019
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By: Konstantinos Efstathiou Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 1, 2019
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Director's Cut: ECB monetary policy decisions deconstructed

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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 27, 2019
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By: Grégory Claeys and Tanja Linta Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 27, 2019
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Speakers: Emanuele Campiglio, Paul Hiebert, Pierre Monnin, Kjell G. Nyborg, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Mario Quagliariello, Mattia Romani, Paweł Samecki and Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Narodowy Bank Polski, Świętokrzyska 11/21, 00-919 Warsaw
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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 20, 2019
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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: June 12, 2019
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