Podcast

Director’s Cut: The economics of no-deal Brexit

Bruegel director Guntram Wolff is joined by senior fellow Zsolt Darvas to rake through the possibilities and probabilities inherent in a no-deal Brexit scenario, covering trade, the Irish border, citizens' rights and the EU budget.

By: Date: January 16, 2019 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Bruegel senior fellow Zsolt Darvas joins Guntram Wolff for this Director’s Cut, to discuss the economic fall-out of a no-deal Brexit.

While the UK remains without an agreement on the nature of its relationship with the EU beyond March 29th 2019, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit – and its bundle of complex permutations for each sector – is still on the table.

What would a WTO-based trade relationship between the EU and the UK look like in reality? Beneath surface-level tariffs, the value chains that would be broken by a hard border in the English Channel could have far-reaching consequences. And in Ireland, the more innovative border solutions remain mostly unsubstantiated, and at the very least would require a long implementation period – the time for which has long since passed.

A no-deal Brexit also has implications for the EU budget. Our calculations specify the gap to be filled if the UK were to stop contributing immediately, as well as the spread of the additional burden across the EU’s member countries.

For further reading on this subject, consider Guntram Wolff’s Policy Contribution on how well prepared the EU might be for a no-deal Brexit scenario, as well as Zsolt Darvas’ full breakdown of the implications for the EU budget of the UK ‘crashing out’ of the union.

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Podcast

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Paying for the European Green Deal

The European Commission has presented its Just Transition Fund to help regions still dependent on fossil fuel as they move towards green energy. But where does the money come from and is it enough to make Europe carbon neutral by 2050? Should the EU re-write its fiscal rules to encourage sustainable investment? And should environmentalists be optimistic? Nicholas Barrett asked Simone Tagliapietra and Grégory Claeys.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: January 16, 2020
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Podcast

Podcast

Banking after Brexit

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By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: January 16, 2020
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A post-Brexit agreement for research and innovation

What is the future of EU's and UK's relationship on research and innovation?

Speakers: Philippe Lamberts, Michael Leigh, Clare Moody, Jaroslaw Pietras, Uta Staiger, Beth Thompson and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Innovation & Competition Policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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Podcast

Will Iran disrupt the global economy?

Last Friday, Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ QUDS force, was killed by an American airstrike outside Baghdad airport. The Ayatollah was not pleased and Tehran has promised to retaliate. At the time of recording, the world is still waiting to see how Iran might respond. Some of have speculated that they could disrupt the world’s oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a vital artery for around a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost a quarter of the world’s oil. Today, oil prices surpassed $70 and if tension escalates the price is bound to grow. How dependent is the global economy on affordable Middle Eastern fossil fuel? This week, Nicholas Barrett is joined by Maria Demertzis and Niclas Poitiers to discuss how the US-Iran hostilities are affecting global economy.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 6, 2020
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Opinion

Understanding populism

Political identity is a group stereotype. As no camp corresponds exactly to our expectations, we choose the one to which we are closest and which is also the most distant from the ideas we reject

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 2, 2020
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A decade to remember (or possibly to forget) for economists

2019 is coming to an end and so is the decade. How did economics change the world over the last ten years? And did the world change economics? Which economics books defined the last ten years? And what should we anticipate in the decade to come? Today, Nicholas Barrett discusses the past and the future with Niclas Poitiers and Maria Demertzis.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 20, 2019
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Podcast

The Sound of Margrethe Vestager

Will AI exacerbate the gap between big companies and small ones? Do ordinary Europeans gain anything from having European tech giants? This week, Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff went to the Berlaymont to interview Margrethe Vestager, the Executive Vice President of the European Commission for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 19, 2019
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Capture the nodes

How do states exercise power through global economic networks? The multilateral world order is supposed to be harmonious, but by seizing the nodes of production, powerful forces can control access to the global economic system and threaten to lock their rival out. This week, Nicholas Barrett and Guntram Wolff are joined by Henry Farrell, Professor of political science and international affairs at the George Washington University, and Abraham L. Newman, Professor of Government at the Georgetown University, to discuss their theory of weaponised interdependency

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 16, 2019
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Blog Post

How much will the UK contribute to the next seven-year EU budget?

This post estimates the United Kingdom’s net contribution to the 2021-2027 EU multiannual budget at close to €20 billion, taking into account the most significant items of the financial settlement according to the October 2019 EU27-UK draft withdrawal agreement.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 16, 2019
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Appellate Body Politic

This week, the WTO's Appellate Body, the dispute settlement body, became inoperational: it no longer has the necessary number of judges to render verdicts. What does this mean for international trade and multilateralism? Are we now living in a world without dispute settlement? This week, Guntram Wolff is joined by Alan Beattie, the author of the FT's new Trade Secrets newsletter, and Alicia García-Herrero to discuss the crisis of the Appellate Body.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 12, 2019
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Podcast

What's inside the European Green Deal?

President Ursula Von der Leyen has presented her European Green Deal before the European Parliament. How will it work? What are its implications? And will it make Europe carbon neutral by 2050? Nicholas Barrett asks  Simone Tagliapietra what's inside the Green Deal.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: December 11, 2019
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Podcast

Podcast

Getting post-Brexit trade deals done

The UK goes to the polls on Thursday to decide who (and if) they want to "get Brexit done". But, as soon as Britain leaves, it will have 11 months to agree a trade deal with the EU. Is it possible? Nicholas Barrett is joined by Maria Demertzis and Niclas Poitiers to discuss post-Brexit trade deals with the EU and the USA.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: December 10, 2019
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