Download publication

External Publication

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.

By: Date: January 16, 2020 Topic: Global Economics & Governance

In the decade of the 2010s, the pace of economic growth in Russia slowed down to an annual rate of below 2% and most forecasts suggest that this is will be the new “normal” for the Russian economy at least in the medium-term. While politically and socially disappointing, such a growth slowdown is unavoidable due to adverse demographic trends.

A combination of a shrinking working-age population and population aging must lead to a lower growth pace as compared to the period when the working-age population was still increasing and the effects of population aging were limited (the decade of the 2000s).

Compensatory measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age and an open labor migration policy, although economically positive, can only partly mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking domestic labor force. In this respect, Russia does not differ from other European countries and some Asian countries.

However, demography and shrinking labor supply cannot fully explain low potential growth. Stagnation in total factor productivity is another reason. It results from a poor business and investment climate, difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector, and deteriorating political and economic relations with the US and EU which limit trade, investment and innovation opportunities. To increase its potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the US, the EU and Russia’s neighbors.

View comments
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

FDI another day: Russian reliance on European investment

Most foreign direct investment into Russia originates in the European Union: European investors own between 55 percent and 75 percent of Russian FDI stock. This points to a Russian dependence on European investment, making the EU paramount for Russian medium-term growth. Even if we consider ‘phantom’ FDI that transits through Europe, the EU remains the primary investor in Russia. Most phantom FDI into Russia is believed to originate from Russia itself and thus is by construction not foreign.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 17, 2020
Read about event More on this topic

Upcoming Event

Mar
3
12:30

The Brussels effect: How the European Union rules the world

This event will challenge the narrative that Europe is in decline, by asking whether Europe does in fact rule the world.

Speakers: Bente Angell-Hansen, Anu Bradford and Giuseppe Porcaro Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More by this author

Blog Post

Climate risks to European banks: a new era of stress tests

Several European central banks have begun assessing the impact of adverse climate scenarios on banks’ capital. Comparable work at EU or euro area level has evolved more slowly. Supervisors need build up a distinct and more complex type of analysis, and should engage with banks now.

By: Alexander Lehmann Topic: Energy & Climate, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 4, 2020
Read article Download PDF More on this topic More by this author

Working Paper

Zsolt Darvas - Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe

Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe

Global trade and finance data indicates that the pre-2008 pace of economic globalisation has stalled or even reversed. The European Union has defied this trend, with trade flows and financial claims continuing to grow after the recovery from the 2008 global economic and financial crisis. Immigration, including intra-EU mobility, has also continued to increase.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2020
Read article

Blog Post

Incorporating political risks into debt sustainability analysis

DSA applies to crisis countries only, but an early warning system identifying vulnerabilities is relevant for all countries. A more general, less stringent, debt vulnerabilities analysis (DVA) could be used to assess countries’ debt management policies and identify vulnerabilities, without leading immediately to policy consequences. A more general framework could also incorporate political risks that are significant determinants of debt dynamics

By: Andrea Consiglio and Stavros Zenios Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: January 22, 2020
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Stability remains key to China

The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks of the households' ability to purchase durable goods

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: January 15, 2020
Read article Download PDF More on this topic

Policy Contribution

Market versus policy Europeanisation: has an imbalance grown over time?

This Policy Contribution tests the hypothesis that an imbalance has grown in Europe over the last few decades because markets have integrated to a greater extent than European-level policymaking, potentially creating difficulties for the democratic process in managing the economy. This hypothesis has been put forward by several authors but not so far tested empirically.

By: Leonardo Cadamuro and Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 9, 2020
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

Could the U.S. economy be experiencing a hidden tech-driven productivity revolution?

In the last decade, most advanced economies have grown more slowly than before. Slower growth has frequently been seen as a legacy of financial crises, especially that of 2007–2009.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Innovation & Competition Policy Date: January 6, 2020
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Improving regulatory policy formulation and institutional resilience in Europe

Are large differences in the resilience of individual economies related to differences in the quality of country-level institutions that shape the absorption and response to these shocks? At this event we'll discuss the evolution of labour markets, and the role of institutional design and good process.

Speakers: Arup Banerji, Maria Demertzis, J. Scott Marcus, Céline Kauffmann and Rogier van den Brink Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: November 13, 2019
Read article More on this topic

Opinion

Upbeat outlook from Chinese banks' profits masks growing problems for small banks

The performance of Chinese banks has been resilient so far, despite decelerating growth. While the performance of large banks remained steady, the rebound came from small banks. Why have small banks rebounded and is the rebound sustainable?

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 12, 2019
Read about event More on this topic

Past Event

Past Event

Russian economy at the crossroads: how to boost long-term growth?

Russia’s convergence to advanced economy income levels has stalled. Long-term growth prospects are still obstructed by sluggish productivity growth, low capital accumulation and shrinking labour inputs. The new government has articulated a set of ambitious policy objectives for the next six years. But are additional reforms necessary to further boost productivity and investments in line with government targets?

Speakers: Marek Dabrowski, Markus Ederer, Elena Flores, Alexander Larionov, Dmitry Polevoy, Niclas Poitiers and Alexey Vedev Topic: Global Economics & Governance Location: Kadashevskaya Naberezhnaya, 14, Moscow, Russia, 115035 Date: November 7, 2019
Read article More on this topic More by this author

Opinion

HK, Taiwan divergence result of economic policies

While the effect of the ongoing unrest on the Hong Kong economy is obvious, Taiwan was already doing better before the protests started.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: November 5, 2019
Load more posts