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Opinion

Brexit and Finance: Brace for No Impact?

Amid the daily high drama of Brexit, it is easy to lose track of the structural shifts, or lack thereof, that may be associated with the UK’s possible departure from the European Union. One of them, and not the least, is the potential impact on the European and global financial system.

By: Nicolas Véron Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 14, 2019
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Blog Post

Cross-border, but not national, EU interregional development projects are associated with higher growth

Our calculations reveal that places where EU regional development projects bind together participants from different countries experience higher economic growth. Purely national interregional projects, on the other hand, are not associated with such benefits. The results hold across regions of different levels of income and consider the effects of other growth-determinants. Cross-border projects might bring efficiency gains, unlock synergies and provide knowledge transfers, boosting activity, with gains going beyond the projects’ scope. Cross-border projects could provide perhaps the only rationale for the continued cohesion/regional funding of more developed regions.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza and Catarina Midoes Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 14, 2019
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Implications of the Japan – United States Mini Trade Agreement

Details of the US-Japan mini-trade deal are lacking but the agreements’ direct impact on the US and Japanese economies is likely to be minuscule. The deal seems to have been made to compensate American farmers – a crucial electoral base of the President – for their losses from the trade war with China.

By: Sybrand Brekelmans and Uri Dadush Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 11, 2019
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Long term real interest rates fell below zero in all euro area countries

The 10-year real government bond yield, which is the nominal yield deflated by expected inflation, has fallen below zero in Italy and Greece, boosted by increased market confidence for their new governments. Romania is the only remaining EU country with a positive real interest rate. Negative real interest rates vastly help fiscal sustainability and provide a great opportunity to invest in much needed infrastructure and the transition to a carbon-neutral economy.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 8, 2019
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Opinion

Europe: en finir avec la politique en silos

Projetée dans un monde de rapport de force dont les principaux protagonistes ne séparent pas géopolitique et économie, l’UE va devoir conduire un changement de logiciel culturel, une mutation organisationnelle et un rééquipement opérationnel, explique l’économiste Jean Pisani-Ferry.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 8, 2019

12 minutes ago

"How does an event as momentous as #Brexit interfere with the critical regional and global role of the United Kingd… https://t.co/HYM2OFEqUq

34 minutes ago

RT @ZsoltDarvas: Cross-border EU regional development projects are associated with higher growth and provide the only rationale for the con…

37 minutes ago

RT @TheEuropeCenter: TEC intern Kyra Whitlaw on "Econ as a Second Language" at @Bruegel_org https://t.co/cPhYeGow73 https://t.co/QvcbvukIiF

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Opinion

The Case for Intelligent Industrial Policy

Although national industrial policies have a bad reputation, there is a strong case for government support to sectors that will increasingly rely on artificial intelligence. In this regard, the German government’s plan to promote production of electric-car batteries may accelerate an industrial renaissance in Europe.

By: Dalia Marin Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 7, 2019
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Blog Post

Thomas Piketty's New Book: Impressive Research, Problematic Solutions

Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century blended history, statistics, and theory. Capital and Ideology his new magnum opus, is long enough (1,200 pages) to lump together several books: a quantitative history of inequality through time and space, from medieval Europe and ancient India to present-day societies; a largely noneconomic theory of social stratification; an investigation into the social roots of current populism; and a political manifesto for the European left.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 3, 2019
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Opinion

Southbound flows rescuing Hong Kong equity market

China seems to be coming to the rescue as social unrest affects the city’s financial market, but it’s probably only for arbitrage reasons

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: October 2, 2019
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Opinion

How to ward off the next recession

Despite confident official pronouncements, the deteriorating state of the global economy is now high on the international policy agenda. The OECD recently revised down its forecasts to 1.5% growth in the advanced G20 economies in 2020, compared to almost 2.5% in 2017. And its chief economist Laurence Boone warned of the risk of further deterioration – a coded way of indicating a growing threat of recession.

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: October 2, 2019
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Opinion

The importance of economic diversification in the Middle East

Simone Tagliapietra's latest opinion on the Financial Times, on the role of Middle East as cornerstones of global energy

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: October 2, 2019
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Blog Post

Why structural balances should be scrapped from EU fiscal rules

A prominent team from DG ECFIN of the European Commission challenged some of the criticisms of the EU’s methodology for estimating potential output and output gaps, as well as their role in the EU fiscal framework. In this post, I conclude that their responses to the criticisms they considered are questionable. More importantly, they overlook serious problems with the EU’s potential output methodology.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: October 1, 2019
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Opinion

Coming soon: a massive laboratory for ‘Green New Deals’

Green New Deals’ are not going to turn countries into ‘hermit nations’,but they are not going to turn countries into economic paradises either. They simply are tools to achieve something more basic: ensure that climate change does not compromise our life in this planet. And this already looks like a good reason for them to be well worth our time.

By: Simone Tagliapietra Topic: Energy & Climate Date: October 1, 2019
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