With the trade conflict between the United States and China bringing China-US strategic competition into the open, the European Union faces an urgent question: how to position itself in the competition.
Populist shocks in the UK and US threaten the multilateral order on which the EU depends. What lies behind these earthquakes, and what does it mean for Europe? Withdrawing from the world is no solution to geo-political upheavals, but Europe needs to reassess the future of globalisation.
Europe’s post-crisis recovery has been disappointing in comparison with the USA. But lower rates of inequality are staving off populism and bolstering support for globalisation. With the USA an increasingly unpredictable partner, the EU must address internal imbalances and build alliances to defend the multilateral order.
Multilateral trade has generated a huge amount of wealth, and lifted many around the world out of poverty. But there is also growing awareness that globalisation is creating “losers”, and this risks feeding a backlash against multilateral trade. We explore the benefits and risks of multilateral trade, and ask how Europe should behave in a shifting context