This event will look at how the rise of China is affecting global value chains.
The economy is in worse shape than in 2015 and policies to boost growth are not as effective as they once were
The European Union’s relationship with Russia is strained, but the two economies are nevertheless highly intertwined. A huge share of Russia’s exports go to the EU, while in the early 2000s, EU countries supplied more than half of Russia’s imports. The EU is also a major investor in, and lender to, Russia.
Why did such a sharp and steady slowdown occur against a background of loose monetary policy, supportive fiscal policy, low inflation and absence of evident large imbalances? As argued in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report issued last week, the evidence points to uncertainty over trade tensions as a major contributor.
Details of the US-Japan mini-trade deal are lacking but the agreements’ direct impact on the US and Japanese economies is likely to be minuscule. The deal seems to have been made to compensate American farmers – a crucial electoral base of the President – for their losses from the trade war with China.
The EU-Mercosur has been 20 years in the making, but a hostile trading environment, unpredictable government and growing environmental concerns are putting it in peril. Is the deal worth fighting for and can it be saved? And could it become a casualty Brazil's forest fires?
At the presentation of her team for the next European Commission, President-elect Ursula von der Leyen declared that hers will be a ‘geopolitical Commission’. It is no surprise, therefore, that her mission letter to Mr Hogan, the incoming Commissioner-designate for Trade, assigns two roles to European Union trade policy.
After nearly 20 years of on-off negotiations, the European Union and Mercosur – a customs union covering Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – in June 2019 reached a political agreement on a trade deal. But to derive the full benefits from the EU-Mercosur agreement, major reforms will be needed.
The incoming European Commission faces a dilemma on the transatlantic trade relationship, because of the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration. The EU must rally its citizens; the greater the divides between member states and EU institutions, the lesser the chances are of forging effective policies toward the United States and China.
President Trump’s radical trade policy continues, as do trade disputes with China. The president promised to sign far better trade deals, ensure fair treatment of American firms and reduce the United States’ trade deficit. None of these objectives have been met.
What risks face the EU with regard to China’s strategic aims in trade policy and how can the EU respond? The US effort to isolate China poses particular risks for Europe. How can the EU counter such efforts with the aim of forging its own distinct trade policy? How should the EU move forward with reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in light of differing demands and aims of trading blocs like China and the US?
This blog is part of a series following the 2019 Bruegel annual meetings, which brought together nearly 1,000 participants for two days of policy debate and discussion.