Alicia García-Herrero
Alicia García Herrero is a Senior fellow at Bruegel.
She is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, based in Hong Kong and is an independent Board Member of AGEAS insurance group. Alicia also serves as a non-resident Senior fellow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST). Finally, Alicia is a Member of the Council of the Focused Ultrasound Foundation (FUF), a Member of the Board of the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI), a member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government, a member of the Advisory Board of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR).
In previous years, Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. As regards her academic career, Alicia has served as visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and Carlos III University.
Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books (see her publications in ResearchGate, Google Scholar, SSRN or REPEC). Alicia is very active in international media (such as BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN) as well as social media (LinkedIn and Twitter). As a recognition of her thought leadership, Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.
Disclaimer of external interests
Featured work
China’s Innovation and Industrial Policy: Achievements, challenges and consequences for Europe
At this event, we will explore both China's successes and challenges when it comes to innovation.
How does China conduct industrial policy: analyzing words versus deeds
China’s ‘new productive forces’ risk overcapacity bubble
India's economy can overtake China's if it can stay on track
China continues to dominate an expanded BRICS
EU-China relation and de-risking global decarbonisation
China economic database
Repository of what we consider to be the most relevant macroeconomic data for China and EU-China relations.
China's continued focus on the same export-driven model is bound to hit an impasse
South Korea's rollercoaster relations with China offer lessons for Europe
China and WTO reform: what to expect?
Indonesia’s post-election balancing act
Indonesia must reconcile its aim to be a leading Asian power with its current over-reliance on China
The post-election Taiwanese economy: decisions ahead and takeaways for the European Union
The EU should try to attract more business from Taiwan, though Taiwan’s January 2024 election has not made the job easier
Asia 2024 Outlook
Taiwan's elections: key takeaways for the European Union
Global Supply Chain Resilience: Facts and Implications
Taiwan’s future economic direction hinges on the election outcome
Depending who wins Taiwan’s 13 January election, the island could swing towards closer relations with China, or entrench decoupling from China.
Taiwan's election will mark an economic crossroads
Growth is rebounding, but island must decide whether to deepen links with China.
Potential Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Consequences of an Expanded BRICS
2024 will be about Western economic normalisation, China’s deceleration and India’s catch-up
China will continue to decelerate slowly but steadily while the rest of emerging Asia will do well.
EU-China summit remains a ‘dialogue of the deaf’ for EU trade concerns
Taiwan poised for economic bounceback in 2024
Growth should more than double from 1.2% to 2.9% so long as geopolitical risks including pivotal elections don’t bubble over
Foreseeing world economy chokepoints in 2024
A rather positive scenario is subject to several risks, starting from geopolitics
Against the odds, China’s push to internationalise its currency is making gains
Geopolitical concerns help support the use of the renminbi despite weak foreign investment trends
'Green tech partnership' offers way to de-risk while decarbonizing
Dependence on China carries supply risks beyond just geopolitics
Why the European Union-China summit is bound to disappoint
The European Union is increasingly disappointed with China over trade.
Biden-Xi dialogue instrumental for a successful EU-China Summit in Beijing
What has changed since our ZhōngHuá Mundus series started in 2021?
Third time lucky? China’s push to internationalise the renminbi
This paper analyses China’s different attempts to internationalise its currency and how they have fared.
De-risking and decarbonising: a green tech partnership to reduce reliance on China
Greater alignment of the major economic powers is needed around a collective effort to improve security of supply for decarbonisation goods.
How to de-risk dependence on China while decarbonising
How should the EU manage its dependence on China for clean tech?
What is behind China's structural deceleration?
China’s position on Israel leading to a cold war
The most far-reaching ramification of recent events is the inexorable advance of a world splitting into two poles.
How might China hit back over the EU’s electric vehicle anti-subsidy investigation?
China’s silence towards the European Union’s electric vehicle probe could mean that a more harmful retaliation is on its way
To what extent can urbanisation mitigate the negative impact of population ageing in China?
Our analysis reveals that ageing accounts for only about 1 percentage point of the GDP growth rate deceleration over the past decade.
Will the Renminbi become an international currency? Policy issues for the European Union
Invitation-only event organised in the frame of the China Horizons project
China’s growing presence in Latin America is a problem for the West
¿Qué precio pagará Italia por abandonar la Ruta de la Seda?
China’s currency slide adds to its economic headaches
Can Italy leave the Belt and Road Initiative without a backlash?
How China responds to Italy’s exit from the BRI may influence other members who are contemplating a similar move.
As China’s Economy Drags, the Rest of Asia Offers Hope
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2023
A symphony in progress: shaping a new agenda for Europe
The War in Ukraine: Economic impact on Asia
How big is China’s global economic footprint? Takeaways for the European Union
Following a boom, China's electric vehicle industry now faces weak domestic demand and heightened geopolitical risk
The story of China's EV industry.
The dangerous link between China’s real estate demise, the economy and the financial system
China’s property sector is plunging further into a crisis that could have major ramifications on the country’s real economy and financial sector.
Will China's quest for innovation help mitigate structural deceleration?
China’s GDP data point to need for stimulus, but will it come?
The main reason for the relatively poor second quarter is lackluster domestic demand.
Resilience of Global Supply Chain: Facts and Implications
Companies diversifying their production away from the People's Republic of China might be a rather rational decision based on an economic rationale.
China’s quest for innovation: progress and bottlenecks
We identify three potential bottlenecks that might be hindering the translation of China’s innovation efforts into productivity growth.
China's growing and complex economic relationship with the Gulf States
To what extent can innovation and global economic dominance mitigate China’s structural slowdown?
Event in the frame of the project China Horizons - Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC)*.
Can Chinese growth defy gravity?
This paper discusses China’s growth for the next two decades, identifying the main challenges and factors that could mitigate its deceleration.
China-EU roller-coaster relations: Where do we stand and what to do?
US Congress hearing on "Europe, the United States, and Relations with China: Convergence or Divergence?"
Resilience of Global Supply Chain: Facts and Implications
China’s weak recovery is turning off foreign investors
Quick rebound expected after the relaxation of zero-Covid policies has not materialised.
China’s growing power in Latin America
China and the US might not be decoupling but their technologies are bifurcating
Once the process of building alliances starts, it is hard to stop.
China’s overseas lending needs a full-fledged debt restructuring
China’s structural deceleration: population aging versus innovation
Closed-door event discussed the importance of rapid aging for the future of the Chinese economy and dwelling on China’s major innovation trends
What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?
Speculation has been triggered about new alliances emerging in the Global South, inspired by China and India's voting behaviour.
EU-China relations have been – and will remain – a rollercoaster
Global trends in countries' perceptions of the Belt and Road Initiative
In this paper, we have analysed the sentiment towards the Belt and Road Initiative in the world using a large open-access dataset, namely GDELT.
Brazil is not a real middle power if it just takes China's side
Lula cannot show strategic autonomy by parroting Xi Jinping
China's good relations with Africa rely more on narratives than economic impact
Will Lula find his El Dorado in China?
The Brazilian president is seeking Beijing’s support for his quest for middle power prowess
China’s 2023 work report and what it means: an AI post-mortem
China is taking a more nuanced approach to the overarching goal of GDP growth.
No gains for Europe from latest pilgrimage to Beijing
Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen are petitioning Xi Jinping on Ukraine and other pressing issues
The Belt and Road Initiative transformation makes it a more – not less- useful tool for China
A European Think Tank’s Experience with the Global Pandemic: The Case of Bruegel
This chapter reviews Bruegel's experience and role in policy formation during the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s new regulator hints at a major clean-up of the world’s largest financial sector
Among several institutional changes, the most significant might be the creation of a new nationwide regulator to oversee China’s financial industry.
Li Keqiang’s farewell points to employment as China’s major problem
China's modest 2023 growth target provides more evidence of a focus on sustainable growth and jobs.
The transformation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: What is in it for Europe?
Closed-door event discussing China's BRI project.
How well does China’s reopening bode for the economy? A political economy story
The boom, bust and future of China's real estate sector
Don’t expect Asia to save the global economy in 2023
Southeast Asian economies, as well as India, are expected to decelerate, which will blur the positive impact of China’s reopening.
China-India relations and their impact on Europe
The COVID–19 pandemic and China’s economic slowdown
Any convergence with the U.S. economy will not continue for long.
China protests add to uncertainty for investors
Demonstrations show how the country is struggling to deal with Covid and an easing of lockdowns.
Xi Jinping’s new smiles got China off the hook at climate talks
Beijing's bandwidth to deliver is shrinking as its economic performance wanes.
Promotion of high capacity broadband to rebuild and recover from the pandemic
High-capacity broadband infrastructure will be a key enabler of a forward-looking recovery after COVID-19.
Lessons for Europe from China’s quest for semiconductor self-reliance
This paper explores China's quest to become a domestic-demand-driven economy, and the lessons that can be learnt from its quest for self reliance.
Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine
The meet did not seem to offer solutions to the two most pressing problems for the international order.
The geopolitics of semiconductors and what Europe can expect
At Party Congress, Xi doubles down on China’s direction
The two key objectives are targeted self-reliance and national security
Europe’s promised semiconductor subsidies need to be better targeted
The proposed European Chips Act over-emphasises semiconductor production subsidies, focusing too little on increasing value-added in research.
China’s real estate sector goes south
The demise of China’s real estate sector, pushed by developer defaults and mortgage boycotts, is a major risk for the Chinese economy.
China's role in the global financial architecture
What risks does China's rise pose to the security of the international financial architecture?
China and the West: growing apart as geopolitical tensions grow
The model of increasing economic interdependence between the West and the emerging world was built on assumptions that no longer hold.
China can learn from the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble
Beijing cannot count on economic growth or fiscal space to tide through crisis
Shinzo Abe’s economic legacy: a glass half full
Abenomics has fallen short in many ways, but Japan has still largely coped with an aging society while maintaining a high level of income equality.
China’s Economy Needs More Stimulus. Beijing’s Room for Maneuver Is Limited.
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2022
The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.
Ukraine and Taiwan on the Biden-Xi chessboard
Overall, Biden and Xi seem to be converging on their strategies for global dominance
China’s non-market practices, impact on the world, and what to do about it?
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
A new kind of Belt and Road Initiative after the pandemic
The Belt and Road Initiative is turning from infrastructure financing into an instrument for Chinese soft and hard power.
BRI 2.0: How has the pandemic influenced China’s landmark Belt and Road Initiative?
China's BRI is undergoing a transformation after two years of pandemic. How is it changing and what are the consequences for Europe.
Xi, Biden switching strategies for dominance
The US now sees Asia more through an economic lens, while China shifts toward a security focus
Is China’s private sector advancing or retreating?
A look into the Chinese private sector.
China’s Covid policy to be year’s largest economic shock
Beijing’s ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy could devastate the domestic economy, but the effects will also be felt globally.
Early Warning Brief: China’s contorted response to Russia sanctions
The spectre of a democratic Russia aligned with the West is probably a more serious concern for Beijing than what it risks losing by supporting Russia
Rallying Chinese markets will not be a quick fix for Beijing
Top official makes rare intervention to reassure investors but progress to resolve problems will be difficult.
China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy
Beijing will support Moscow as long as it does not fall foul of Western sanctions.
China offers Russia respite but not a solution
Beijing could provide greater assistance to its partner while benefiting from greater energy and military security, but this option is not without ris
Can China bail out Putin?
Even with help from China, Russia will be unable to mitigate the immediate impact of Western sanctions.
War in Ukraine: Russia-China relations
A special episode of the Sound of Economics Live on China-Russia relations in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China’s economic support for Russia is not a panacea
The EU is still Russia’s largest trading partner, actually several times bigger than China.
Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis
Only companies investing in advanced semiconductors will see their margins increase.
Will this be the century of youthful Asia?
Youthful Asia offers immense opportunities for investors, but this potential can only be realised if their infrastructure and energy needs are fulfill
East-west divergence in central bank action will not last much longer
Fed shift towards raising rates will make it hard for China and Japan not to tighten monetary policy.
How China’s investment in Middle East is evolving
The share of the Middle East in China’s total overseas investment has declined for several reasons.
In the electric vehicle race, China coming first
China is not only a producer and consumer of EVs, but also of the battery components on which they depend.
Global Gateway vs. Belt and Road Initiative
How does the EU's Global Gateway plan compare to China's Belt and Road initiative?
2022 to see monetary decoupling between West and East
It does not look like the new year is going to be calmer than 2021.
China’s medium term outlook: Will innovation save China from becoming old before it becomes rich?
What can China do to stop the deceleration of its economy. Is innovation the solution?
Chinese economic statecraft: what to expect in the next five years?
Chapter from 'Storms Ahead: the Future Geoeconomic world order' on the expectations from the next five years of Chinese economic policy, published on
Advancing global value and supply chains to mitigate the challenges arising from the pandemic
Session at the 1st ASIA-EUROPE ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS FORUM: Transitioning to a New Normal: Leveraging Global Value Chains, Multilateralism and the 4IR
How can we create more sustainable value chains?
There is an urgent need for GVCs to become more resilient and inclusive, and meet the net-zero challenge.
Microchips and Europe's strategic autonomy
Per microchips ad strategic autonomy.
Weak G20 climate pledge doesn’t bode well for COP26
Climate strategists may see a need to shift to a more assertive approach.
COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges
China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity
Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point
China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.
A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?
Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existi
Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?
Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.
What Evergrande signals about China's economic future
Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.
The Sound of Economics Live: Unboxing the State of the Union 2021
In this episode, we look at the State of the Union address delivered by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
EU-India trade relations: assessment and perspectives
In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).
What is behind China's Dual Circulation Strategy?
China's dual circulation strategy should not be dismissed as a buzzword: its implementation will entail major consequences.
The role of the EU's trade strategy for an inclusive and sustainable recovery
Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 3 - We are delighted to welcome Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President of the European Commission for An Economy th
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 1-3 September 2021
The 2021 Annual Meetings gathered high-level speakers and participants to discuss how to recover from the crises brought on by the Covid pandemic
Hydrogen development strategies: a global perspective
Despite different strategies, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and Japan all expect hydrogen to play a significant rol
Why China should fear the EU's carbon border tax
Expect Beijing to soon start lobbying against the proposal.
Could the RMB dislodge the dollar as a reserve currency?
The dollar remains the world’s largest reserve currency, but it is facing both domestic and external risks.
For the climate, Asia-Pacific must phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
An exit from coal in the Asia-Pacific region is a global decarbonisation priority.
The UK’s security and trade relationship with China
Testimony before the International Relations and Defence Committee at the House of Lords, British Parliament on the UK’s security and trade relationsh
Global value chain reshuffling: From tight coupling to loose coupling?
As the focus shifts from efficiency to resilience in global supply chains, what does this mean for China?
Europe's crusade to fend off Chinese interference falls short
It is in everybody's interest for China to level the playing field among state-owned, private, and foreign companies so that no new distortionary meas
China’s M&A activity rebounds with a clear focus on Europe
Despite the pandemic, China’s interest in overseas M&A started to rebound in late 2020, with European industrial companies still of particular interes
China has a grand carbon neutrality target but where is the plan?
China’s new long-term targets, to reach peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, are yet to be matched with a consistent shor
The EU-China investment deal may be anachronic in a bifurcating world
Ultimately, only time will tell if this landmark trade agreement will be productive and counter the potential bifurcation of international value chain
Anchoring expectations as Two Sessions’ main objective
Interestingly, the growth target for 2021 is pretty humble: over 6 percent for 2021, while most forecasts hover between 7 and 10 percent.
How is the G20 tackling debt problems of the poorest countries?
The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, although a partial success, has been dogged by competing interests and lack of coordination. A further pus
China’s state-owned enterprises and competitive neutrality
The concept of competitive neutrality can be used to assess how far a market is from being a competitive environment.
Asset bubbles won’t help our post-pandemic recovery
An unintended consequence of the virus has been ‘one of the wildest bull markets in recent economic history’ but a worsening of income distribution wi
Europe's disappointing investment deal with China
Why rush a deal that is so inherently complex?
Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling
After decades of increasing globalisation, there now seems to be a slowing, or even a turn to deglobalisation, meaning decelerating trade and investme
When and how should the European Union conclude an investment agreement with China?
A look into the potential Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the European Union.
Europe and India: Comparing Approaches to Global Economic Challenges
Stakeholders from government, private sector, media and academia/institutions come together to review India-EU relations.
A silver lining for ageing Asia
An ageing population is generally bad news for growth prospects, but Japan and Taiwan offer important lessons.
Europe is losing competitiveness in global value chains while China surges
The European Union owes much of its economic weight to its regional value chain and integration into the global value chain. But the EU’s global value
How to keep a competitive environment while engaging with non market economies?
How can we ensure fair competition between European firms and Chinese state-backed players?
China-EU economic relations in the era of US-China economic competition
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of China-EU economic relations.
RCEP might not stop reshuffling of Asian value chains
China is no doubt bound to benefit, but other members of the regional trade pact may benefit even more
Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role on Funding the BRI: How does it fare against Singapore?
A look into the intermediary role of Hong Kong in financing cross-border Belt and Road Initiative projects and compare it with Singapore, a similar of
Fifth Plenum maps China’s response to a more hostile world
'The Communist Party has acknowledged that the outside world now is more of a risk than an opportunity.'
China's yuan nowhere near cracking US dollar hegemony
For all Beijing's ambitions of cracking the hegemony of the US dollar in the face of Trump administration sanctions, the yuan still has a long way to
Politics, not economics, demands a strengthened international role for the euro
Not just the EU but also other countries, particularly China, need a defence against weaponisation of the dollar.
The pandemic will structurally change the global economy more than we think
It is time to rethink many of the basic principles of our economic model to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Sound of Economics Live: The State of the Union going forward
In the first Sound of Economics Live episode after summer we look at the State of the Union address delivered by Ursula von der Leyen.
Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low
There was nothing concrete to justify calling this video conference an EU-China Summit.
China's 'dual circulation' plan is bad news for others' exports
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 2
Second day of Bruegel Annual Meetings.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 1-3 September, 2020
Bruegel's flagship event transformed into a virtual conference for pandemic times
Coronavirus recovery: invest rainy day savings to boost Hong Kong’s economy
The Hong Kong government might want to consider diversifying its economy by using part of the savings earmarked for rainy days. Beyond cushioning the
China Has an Unfair Advantage in the EU Market. What Can Be Done to Level the Playing Field?
China's targeted corporate shopping spree to continue, especially in Europe
Expect small, below the radar deals to continue to flourish and, by the same token, Europe to lose part of its edge in industrial technology and other
Debt relief for Sub-Saharan Africa: what now?
When G20 finance heads meet on 18 July, Europe will again need to lead on the group’s flagship COVID-19 initiative to postpone low-income countries’ d
Credible emerging market central banks could embrace quantitative easing to fight COVID-19
Emerging economies are fighting COVID-19 and the economic sudden stop imposed by the containment and lockdown policies, in the same way as advanced ec
Toward a smart Indian response to China
Rather than risking its soldiers' lives on the border, India should join 'middle power' economic coalitions to address China's behavior.
EU-China trade and investment relations in challenging times
In this report, we have focused on trade and investment relations and have not attempted to define the many other policy instruments that the EU can a
Covid-19 and emerging economies: What to expect in the short- and medium-term
COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies
COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large nega
Reading tea leaves from China’s two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee
The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete.
The Sound of Economics Live: China’s financial system: opening up and system risk
China is opening up its financial sector? What does that mean for China and the world?
Covid19 and emerging economies
What to expect in the short and medium term? Covid-19 will consequently push for a quick reshuffling of the global value chain away from the emerging
The Sound of Economics Live: China’s economy after COVID-19
This episode of The Sound of Economics Live will explore the short and medium term prospects for the Chinese economy after COVID-19
Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020
Why are some stock markets in Asia less affected by coronavirus?
While Asian markets are in a sea of red, mainland China, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all defying the gravity.
From G7 to G20: passing three hot potatoes
Yesterday’s G7 video-conference ended in silence. It wasn’t even possible for the group to issue a joint statement after the US administration's push
A letter to Santa, the G7
The G7 should set an example of international cooperation and come out with a strong signal of unity and support for the euro-area. Only then will the
Only the coronavirus can convince Trump of the virtues of international cooperation
Given how badly the coronavirus outbreak in the US is affecting Trump’s chances to be reelected, let’s hope he comes to its senses and see the advanta
CANCELLED: India-EU Partnership: New Vistas for the Next Decade
Policymakers, academics and private sector actors from the EU and India come together to work on common issues and explore further areas of cooperatio
Uncoordinated policies behind market collapse
Underlying issues, and not just the coronavirus panic, fed the recent meltdown
Global competition and digital change: How should we update European competition policy?
The event addressed the need for modernising European competition policy due to structural changes in the economy caused by shifting global economic l
Downsides to Hong Kong’s untargeted cash handout
The stimulus is regressive in nature, as the bulk of expenditure is a one-off cash disbursement per adult
Companies must move supply chains further from China
Virus shows Southeast Asian factories too dependent on imported production inputs
Why the US Trade Agreement will slow China’s economy
The response of the global financial markets to the trade agreement reached between the United States and China has been very positive, probably exces
Epidemic tests China’s supply chain dominance
Much has been written on the Wuhan coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease Covid-19, but very little is known yet about its impact on the glob
China’s Coronavirus will not lead to recession but to stimulus and even more debt
The coronavirus outbreak will not lead to recession but the costs of ensuring growth targets will be high
From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade
This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows.
The US-China trade agreement will not put an end to geopolitical risks
The agreement between the US and China should not be read so positively in Europe, especially in Germany
Stability remains key to China
The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks
Japanese economy: Déjà vu – but worse
It is difficult to imagine how Japan can undertake any major economic reform if it has taken five years to increase the consumption tax and has needed
Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario
The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely dea
EU-Asia trade and investment connectivity
The Asia Europe Economic Forum (AEEF) was established in 2006 as a high level forum for in-depth research-based exchanges on global issues between Asi
Hong Kong’s Economy is in Danger of Further Contraction
Approaching the end of a volatile year, Hong Kong continues to face the triple whammy of slower growth in mainland China, the trade war uncertainty an
How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union
China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China
The role of China in global value chains
This event looked at how the rise of China is affecting global value chains.
Why sentiment in Greater Bay Area is deteriorating, especially in Hong Kong
Lack of concrete plans affects sentiment after brief surge on announcement of Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay A
Upbeat outlook from Chinese banks' profits masks growing problems for small banks
The performance of Chinese banks has been resilient so far, despite decelerating growth. While the performance of large banks remained steady, the reb
China’s growing presence on the Russian market and what it means for the European Union
The European Union’s relationship with Russia is strained, but the two economies are nevertheless highly intertwined. A huge share of Russia’s exports
Why investors should temper optimism over a China trade rally
The economy is in worse shape than in 2015 and policies to boost growth are not as effective as they once were
HK, Taiwan divergence result of economic policies
While the effect of the ongoing unrest on the Hong Kong economy is obvious, Taiwan was already doing better before the protests started.
Bolsonaro’s pilgrimage to Beijing
A strategic alliance between Brazil and China could be music to the ears for both leaders, but Bolsonaro does not want to look like one more vassal. X
Southbound flows rescuing Hong Kong equity market
China seems to be coming to the rescue as social unrest affects the city’s financial market, but it’s probably only for arbitrage reasons
China's dual banking system: consolidation as the final solution for weak small banks
There are fundamental solvency and liquidity issues for some small Chinese banks, widely influencing both the bond market as well as the broader finan
The tricky link between the Hong Kong dollar and capital flows
The Hong Kong economy has been hit by a series of shocks, but it should resist taking drastic measures to keep foreign capital in the city.
China-EU investment relations: Exploring competition and industrial policies
This is a closed-door workshop jointly organised by MERICS and Bruegel looking at China-EU investment relations.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019, 4-5 September
The 2019 Annual Meetings featured the launch of Bruegel's memos to the new European Leadership, proposing how to deal with future policy challenges
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019
Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.
Is this really a currency war or just a tantrum?
Since the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowed the yuan to surpass the dreaded level of 7 to the dollar on August 11, rivers of ink have flowed citin
Last Tango In Biarritz: The End Of The G7?
The seemingly omnipotent G7, the meeting of the seven largest developed economies in the world, is weakening continuously and, as the author suggests,
Hong Kong’s economy is still important to the Mainland, at least financially
Hong Kong’s current situation is important for the world in as far as its role as major offshore financial centre is key for China’s inbound and outbo
A reflection on the Mercosur agreement
The EU accepts the deal because it is worried about the catastrophic scenario of a world without the WTO.
China’s investment in Africa: What the data really says, and the implications for Europe
China has clearly signalled to Europe that it does not shy away from involvement in Africa, historically Europe’s area of influence. But the nature of
What bond markets tell about China’s economy
Macro data doesn’t provide a comprehensive picture to investors, but bond issuance data can fill in some gaps.
China’s investment in Africa: consequences for Europe
How is Chinese investment impacting Africa, and what could be the consequences for Europe?
EU-LAC Economic Forum 2019: New perspectives in turbulent times
The third edition of the EU-LAC Economic Forum.
Too crowded bets on “7” for USDCNY could be dangerous
The Chinese yuan has been under pressure in recent days due to the slowing economy and, more importantly, the escalating trade war with the US. While
Expect a U-shape for China’s current account
As the US aims to reduce it's bilateral trade deficit, China's current-account surplus is back in the headlines. However, in reality China’s current-a
India in 2024: Narendra Modi once more, but to what end?
Even with the recent economic slowdown, India still boasts Asia’s fastest growing economy in 2018. But beneath the veneer of impressive GDP expansion,
Will China’s trade war with the US end like that of Japan in the 1980s?
The outcome of the US-China trade war is anticipated to be quite different from the experience of Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, due to China’s relativ
Trade war: Is the U.S. panicking due to China's big hedge?
U.S.-China trade war has suddenly taken centre stage following Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement to ramp up tariffs if no deal is reached. U.S. i
What else China can do to support growth in the short term
Recent data shows the downward spiral in the Chinese economy has somewhat eased on a cyclical basis, but it is still too early to cheer for a full sta
The next step of the Belt and Road Initiative: Multilateralisation with Chinese characteristics
The increasingly broad objective of China's Belt and Road Initiative has attracted the attention not only from the BRI members, but also from other ma
Europe in the midst of China-US strategic competition: What are the European Union's options?
With the trade conflict between the United States and China bringing China-US strategic competition into the open, the European Union faces an urgent
Takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France and Italy and ideas for the EU-China summit
The author appraises China's strategy towards Europe ahead of next month's EU-China summit.
Sticks and carrots from China’s leadership to Chinese banks
The takeaway from the 13th National People's Congress (NPC) is clear: under the current economic downturn, Chinese authorities will do whatever it tak
China’s debt is still piling up – and the pile-up is getting faster
With looser monetary policy, China's policymakers hope to encourage banks to lend more to the private sector. This seems to imply a change from the de
China's strategy: Growth, alliances, and tech acquisition
Despite the pause in the US-China trade war, the US and China are strategic competitors, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. China
The world’s response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative
This event will look at the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative as well as the response from the rest of the world.
Countries’ perceptions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A big data analysis
Drawing on a global database of media articles, the authors quantitatively assess perceptions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in different c
Lose-lose scenario for Europe from ongoing China-US negotiations
Without an expectation of a larger market for European exports in the absence of additional opening up by Chinese authorities, European exporters shou
China’s view of the trade war has changed—and so has its strategy
The truce agreed on by China and the United States at the sidelines of the recent G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires doesn’t really change the picture of th
Global markets’ tepid reaction to China’s new opening
China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 was greeted with great fanfare. But near silence has greeted the recent removal by the China
Ten years after the crisis: The West’s failure pushing China towards state capitalism
When considering China’s renewed state capitalism, we should be mindful of the damage done by the 2008 financial crisis to the world's perception of W
Japan must boost R&D to keep rising Chinese rivals at bay
As China shifts into a more advanced industrialised economy, Japan has slowly but surely lost to some of its comparative advantages to its rival. One
China Made Two Promises in Africa. Can It Keep Them?
China has committed to a market-driven relationship with Africa, as well as a new $60 billion investment plan on the continent, following the recent C
China real estate developers: a grey rhino in the jungle of financial risks
The author assesses the Chinese real estate industry’s liquidity concerns and its leverage, which is estimated to be four times higher than its global
China's digital economy
How to measure China's digital economy?
Perils and potential: China-US-EU trade relations
We are hosting a number of Chinese and EU experts to discuss trade relations between the three forces.
US-China trade war: What’s in it for Europe?
To help evaluate whether the market response is warranted or exaggerated, the author measured the trade impact of additional import tariffs based on s
Goodbye deleveraging: Fiscal and monetary expansion to support growth in China
China has opted for a renewed fiscal and monetary stimulus to address the risk of the US-led trade war. The dual policies send a clear signal that ec
Trade war trinity: analysis of global consequences
Analysis of the long-term impact of the trade war and its three key players: EU, US, and China.
EU-LAC Economic Forum 2018
The second edition of the EU-LAC Economic Forum, a high level gathering for in-depth research-based exchanges on economic issues between European, Lat
European and Chinese trade competition in third markets: the case of Latin America
While Europe continues to hold important trade powers, the rise of China in the global economy has significantly reshaped international trade and comp
How big is China’s digital economy?
The rise of influential Chinese digital giants, including Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi has shown the world that China is a global leader in digi
China’s financial opening: Will it be different this time?
It is hard to judge whether China will indeed carry out a substantial opening of its financial sector, despite the significant external pressure it fa
Why this round of U.S. protectionism is different
Although it is not the first time that the world has been caught in the China-U.S. crossfire, this round of U.S. protectionist moves against China is
What Are the Targets in the US–China Trade War?
Following the US announcement of new, high tariffs on imports, China is answering the Trump administration by applying its own series of tariffs. In t
US Tariffs Aim to Contain China’s Technological Rise
While tension increases with each of the imports listed under the new tariffs, it now seems clear that the US are trying to slow down China's technolo
Will U.S. tax reform lure U.S. companies away from China?
What will be the results of the changes to the U.S. tax system in China? Will the new U.S. corporate tax rate cause Chinese firms to shift their opera
Reading The Tea Leaves on China’s Constitutional Amendments
The recent amendments of the Chinese Constitution have stimulated much attention, focusing on the power consolidation of President Xi. Though the four
China's “matryoshka” approach for debt-to-equity swaps could be good for banks, but bad for investors
The Chinese banking sector has enhanced its clean-up mechanism by introducing debt-to-equity swaps for the resolution of problem loans. While this all
China Fails to Woo U.S. With Financial Sector Opening
China's recent announcement of reforming its financial market has received little enthusiasm from the U.S. despite its potential benefits. The lack of
Chinese banks’ improved asset quality cannot hide other phantoms
The recent improvement in asset quality cannot mask other growing concerns in China’s banking sector. Beyond liquidity concerns, other structural issu
South Korea needs to watch the BOJ rather than the Fed
Due its actual economic structure, South Korea should be more worried about BOJ's extremely lax stance than about monetary policy normalization by the
Chinese banks: An endless cat and mouse game benefitting large players
As deleveraging moves up in the scale of objectives of the Chinese leadership, banks now face more restrictions from regulators. As a result, banks ha
EU-China economic relations: looking to 2025
This event will see the launch of a report on EU-China relations and discuss issues such as trade and investment, industrial cooperation and innovatio
EU–China Economic Relations to 2025. Building a Common Future
The EU and China, as the world’s second and third largest economies, share a responsibility in upholding the rules-based, global free trade system and
Is China Deleveraging? Too Early to Cheer
Hong Kong should add the euro to its dollar peg
Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the do
Should the EU have the power to vet foreign takeovers?
Should the EU have the power to vet foreign takeovers? André Sapir and Alicia Garcia-Herrero debate the issue, which has become topical in view of rec
ASEAN Against the World: Strength in the Numbers
Corporate debt in emerging markets has long been perceived as a relevant risk for the global economy. In reality, this perception might be true for so
Europe's global positioning and its trade implications for Asia
This event, taking place in Hong Kong will discuss Europe-Asia relations in the context of global developments.
How to handle state-owned enterprises in EU-China investment talks
Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are one of the main obstacles preventing China and the European Union from agreeing a bilateral investment agre
Other than climate change, can anything else unite Europe and China against Trump?
Some instant takeaways from the EU-China Summit. A timely show of unity, but little real change in interests.
China cannot finance the Belt and Road alone
The One Belt One Road initiative holds great promise for the global economy, but will need a huge amount of finance. Initial presumptions that China w
China's rising leverage is a growing risk
Worries about the growth in China's leverage are on the rise. Is this growth in leverage sustainable? Alicia García-Herrero finds that the evidence is
Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on financial markets in Chile
During the past few years, monetary policy communication has become a hot topic in as far as it seems to have become a very relevant way for central b
Who would bet on currency unions after EMU crisis?
The European Monetary Union (EMU) was founded with the idea that nominal convergence would bring real convergence, but structural differences between
Financing the Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road initiative, recently embarked on by China, aims to improve cross-border infrastructure in order to reduce transportation costs acros
China banks in 2017: No rebound in sight, rising risks for smaller banks
Alicia García-Herrero finds it unlikely that risk in the Chinese banking sector will abate any time soon. And the worries are strongest for smaller i
CFETS will show which way the Renminbi is heading during the US dollar bull
Currency watchers are sometimes baffled by the role of the CFETS in regulating the relation of RMB to the US Dollar. However, the recent history of CF
Is the UK’s role in the European supply chain at risk?
Will the UK’s engagement in European supply chains be at risk once the UK exits the EU?
UK-China agreement on trade in services is no substitute for a UK-EU deal
The UK government has high hopes that new trade deals with non-EU states will offer an economic boost after Brexit. But how likely is this to material
Japanese banks and US$ liquidity: Squeezed between expensive deposits and the BoJ
For the last few years, Japanese banks have aggressively expanded their assets overseas, which has helped increased their stubbornly low profitability
South Korea and Indonesia: a capital match
Mutually beneficial Jakarta-Seoul relationship could develop further with an upgrade in Jakarta’s sovereign debt.
Trump could give new impetus to EU-China relations
It is too early to say what the Trump administration’s trade policy will look like – but a total cut-off from Asian partners is unlikely. It would har
What consequences would a post-Brexit China-UK trade deal have for the EU?
A China-UK free trade agreement has been extensively discussed since the UK’s vote for Brexit. Many supporters of Brexit argue that the UK’s regained
The yuan's SDR entry is more symbolism than substance
The yuan's official entry into the International Monetary Fund's basket of reserve currencies on Oct. 1 raised expectations that central banks all ove
China's state-owned enterprises reform still lacking bite
China has gone through a remarkable transformation in recent decades but tough reforms have become rare, especially since the global financial crisis.
13th Asia Europe Economic Forum (AEEF)
This edition of the of the Asia-Europe Economic Forum is entitled: “Riding the new waves: Asian and European Economic Perspectives” and will be held i
What does China’s ‘belt and road initiative’ mean for EU trade?
Much has been written about the Belt and Road initiative since Xi Jinping made it Beijing’s flagship initiative in September 2013. There are many inte
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016, 6-7 September
The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016
The Annual Meetings are a high point in Bruegel's calendar.
China’s Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains?
The Belt and Road aims to ease bottlenecks for cross-border trade in Asia, Europe and Africa. This paper measures empirically whether the reduction i
China's political agenda for the G20 summit
Chairing the G20 offers China a unique opportunity to set the tone in global economic debates, and the Hangzhou summit is the focus of attention. The
‘Old China’ bad, ‘New China’ good: Growing divergence in Chinese corporate health
Divergence in debt levels and corporate health in China is growing, with many state-owned companies still stuck in the past and new industries such as
Assessing China’s post-Brexit globalisation strategy
As the world comes to terms with the result of the UK's Brexit referendum, what will it mean for China? The authors suggest that the short-term impact
The China-Russia trade relationship and its impact on Europe
This paper analyses empirically how increasingly close trade relations between China and Russia might affect the European Union.
China-Russia relations and their impact on Europe
The economic ties between China and Russia are growing. How will this relation affect Europe?
Brazil can learn from Spain: don't delay adjustment
Brazil’s economic crisis has much in common with Spain’s crisis from 2009 – 2012. The IMF and the global community must work together to ensure a stab
Debt, not reserves, to constrain China’s cross-border buying spree
Despite an $800 billion drain on China’s foreign reserves over the last 20 months, Chinese firms have been on a buying spree that has only accelerated
Chinese banks: the way forward
Despite the economic downturn the Chinese banking system continues its expansion. Concerns are rising about the institutions' strenght, as bad loans c
Japan needs labour market reform, not just higher wages
The Japanese government is trying to boost wages, but this is not enough to jumpstart growth. Japan needs to reform its labour market to increase the
China continues to focus on growth not reform
The central government will hold the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting on March 5th. All the signs point to more monetary and fiscal stimulus,
China is running out of options as foreign reserves drop
The Chinese are watching a new storm unfold in their financial markets, only months after having been bombarded with news about China’s “historical vi
The new silk road: what is in it for Europe
How will the new Silk Road initiative affect the European economy?
Indebted ASEAN companies will feel Fed's rate rise
While the markets could not have been surprised about the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates after a series of warnings since mid
Brazil: playing with fire
Rattled by political turmoil and in the midst of severe stagflation, Brazil is really ‘playing with fire’. Urgent measures are needed to reduce the fi
Internationalising the currency while leveraging massively: the case of China
This paper reviews the steps that China has taken towards financial reform with a particular focus on capital account liberalisation and international
China’s quest for SDR: much ado about nothing
The possibility of the RMB joining the group of key reserve currencies in the world, as defined by the currency composition of the IMF’s own internati
Where is China heading? Prospects for politics and the economy
After a tough 12 months, where will the next few years take this engine of global growth?
China’s interest in the Juncker Plan: not so strange after all
China has recently started to express interest in the Juncker plan. There have been rumours that China would like to initially invest between €5 and €
Trans-Pacific Partnership: Should the key losers - China and Europe - join forces?
After five years of struggle, a massive trade pact has been signed among the US, Japan and 10 other economies (mostly in Asia but also Latin America):
China's woes could derail Abenomics
The Japanese economy is already showing clear signs of renewed weakness.
Emerging markets and Europe: time for different relationships?
Now that Europe can focus on medium-term issues rather than crisis management, it is the right time to reassess relations with the emerging markets.
Why is China finding it hard to fight the markets?
Sitting on a pile of debt, China’s only way out is to deleverage: more pain now for sustainable growth later.
Europe must wake up before Iran falls into the arms of Russia and China
European leaders seem to have been caught somewhat off-guard by the Iran deal. The Greek saga alone could explain this. The problem is that other comp
China's stock market falling off a cliff: Why, and why care?
Spurred by interventions from Chinese authorities, the Chinese stock market was rallying. However, the recent sell-off has wiped out on
China’s outward foreign direct investment
China’s outbound foreign direct investment (ODI) may have exceeded inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) for the first time in 2014, according to th
The emerging world: Debt as key risk
Perhaps the most ostensible of all challenges faced by the global economy is that of pervasive debt levels. For quite some time now, particularly foll
China pushing 'build now, pay later' model to emerging world
China will be the largest contributor to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which aims to become the first global institution headquartered in
Additional monetary easing for China?
As many other central banks in the Asian region, the People Bank of China (PBoC) has been on an easing mode for a few months now and more seems to be
Follow what I do, and also what I say: Monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets
The objective of this paper is to assess empirically whether futures interest rates in Brazil react to changes in the SELIC rate and, especially, to
Financial inclusion, rather than size, is the key to tackling income inequality
In this paper we assess empirically whether financial inclusion contributes to reducing income inequalitywhen controlling for other key factors, such